| 引用本文: | 刘斐尔,惠 磊,孙栋元,等.基于Budyko假设的疏勒河流域水沙变化归因识别[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(1):94-104. |
| LIU Feier,HUI Lei,SUN Dongyuan,et al.基于Budyko假设的疏勒河流域水沙变化归因识别[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(1):94-104. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】验证并发展Budyko水热耦合理论在干旱区内陆河流域的应用，探究气候变化与人类活动对水沙过程的交互作用机制。【方法】以疏勒河流域为研究对象，基于昌马堡、潘家庄、党城湾3个水文站1972—2022年径流深、输沙量、降水量和潜在蒸散发等长期观测数据，运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt突变检验法，对水文要素进行趋势分析和突变检测，采用弹性系数法和累积斜率变化率法定量评估气候变化和人类活动对径流与输沙变化的贡献率。【结果】①1972—2022年昌马堡站、潘家庄站和党城湾站年径流深均呈“增大-减小-增大”的变化趋势，分别于2001、2011、1986年发生显著突变。与基准期相比，变化期分别增加了43.26、7.21、4.24 mm。②3个站点年输沙量呈“增大-减小-增大-减小”的变化趋势，分别于1995、1988、2007年发生突变。与基准期相比，变化期昌马堡站和潘家庄站输沙量分别增加了188.59万、32.97万t，党城湾站输沙量减少了16.81万t。③气候变化对径流增加的贡献率在昌马堡站、潘家庄站和党城湾站分别为52.86%、39.16%、-91.38%，人类活动贡献率分别为47.14%、60.84%、191.38%。昌马堡站和潘家庄站气候变化对输沙量增加的贡献率分别为18.88%、45.31%，人类活动贡献率分别为81.12%、54.69%；党城湾站气候变化对输沙量减小的贡献率为31.17%，人类活动贡献率为68.83%。径流深对下垫面参数变化最为敏感，降水量次之，潜在蒸散发的影响最小。在水沙变化中，人类活动的贡献率总体占主导地位。【结论】疏勒河径流变化在上游主要受气候变化影响，在中下游人类活动影响逐渐占据主导地位；输沙量变化中，人类活动的贡献率显著高于气候变化。 |
| 关键词: 疏勒河流域；径流量输沙量；归因分析；Budyko弹性系数法；累积斜率变化率法 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025161 |
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| Change in water and sediment in the Shule River Basin and their drivers |
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LIU Feier, HUI Lei, SUN Dongyuan, CUI Yanqiang, WANG Xingfan, WU Lanzhen, MA Yali, SHU Heping
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1. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2. Water Resources Administration Bureau of the Dang River Basin, Jiuquan City, Jiuquan 735000, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】River basins in arid regions are sensitive to climate change and human activities, with their water-sediment processes undergoing profound changes that would affect ecological security and water resource management. Using Budyko's water-heat coupling theory, this paper analyses the effects of climate change and human activities on water and sediment processes in an inland river basin.【Method】Taking the Shule River Basin as an example and based on runoff depth, sediment discharge, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration measured from 1972 to 2022 at three hydrological stations: Changma Fort, Panjiazhuang and Dangchengwan in the basin, we analysed the changes in water and sediment processes and their influencing factors. The Mann-Kendall trend test and Pettitt abrupt change test were used to analyse and identify the temporal variations and abrupt change in hydrological processes. The elasticity coefficient method and cumulative slope change rate method were used to evaluate the contribution of climate change and human activities to changes in runoff and sediment discharge.【Result】① From 1972 to 2022, the annual runoff depth at all three stations showed an ‘increase-decrease-increase’ trend, with significant abrupt changes identified in 2001 at Changma Fort, 2011 at Panjiazhuang, and 1986 at Dangchengwan; compared with the baseline period, the runoff depth at the three stations increased by 43.26 mm, 7.21 mm and 4.24 mm respectively. ② The annual sediment discharge at the three stations showed an ‘increase-decrease-increase- decrease’ trend, with abrupt changes identified in 1995 at Changma Fort, 1988 at Panjiazhuang and 2007 at Dangchengwan. Compared with the baseline period, the sediment discharge increased by 1.885 9 million tons and 0.329 7 million tons at Changma Fort and Panjiazhuang, and decreased by 0.168 1 million tons at Dangchengwan. ③ The contribution of climate change to runoff changes at Changma Fort, Panjiazhuang and Dangchengwan was 52.86%, 39.16% and -91.38%, respectively, with the remaining contributed by human activities. The contribution of climate change to sediment changes at Changma Fort and Panjiazhuang was 18.88% and 45.31%, respectively, with the remaining contributed by human activities. At Dangchengwan, the contribution of climate change and human activities to the sediment discharge was 31.17% and 68.83%, respectively. The runoff was most sensitive to the underlying surface characteristic, followed by precipitation, and least affected by potential evapotranspiration. Overall, human activities were the dominant factors influencing changes in water and sediment processes.【Conclusion】The runoff change in the upper reaches of the Shule River was mainly affected by climate change, while in the middle and lower reaches, human activities were the dominant factors. The contribution of human activities to sediment changes was significantly higher than that of climate change. |
| Key words: Shule River Basin; runoff and sediment discharge; attribution analysis; Budyko elasticity coefficient method; cumulative slope change rate method |
