| 引用本文: | 牛文轩,董佳毅,徐盼盼.黄河流域九省会洪涝灾害社会脆弱性研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(1):128-134. |
| NIU Wenxuan,DONG Jiayi,XU Panpan.黄河流域九省会洪涝灾害社会脆弱性研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(1):128-134. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究黄河流域九省会城市洪涝灾害社会脆弱性及其驱动因子，为支撑黄河流域“人-城-水”和谐共生提供理论依据。【方法】以黄河流域九省省会城市为研究对象，基于暴露度-敏感性-适应能力（Vulnerability Scoping Diagram，VSD）模型，构建了洪涝灾害社会脆弱性评价体系，对2011—2022年九省会的社会脆弱性进行评估，引入聚类分析法识别其主要驱动因子。【结果】黄河流域九省会洪涝灾害社会脆弱性存在显著的时空分布差异，整体呈现由上游向下游逐渐升高的趋势。上游省会城市多处于中-低脆弱性；中游省会太原市处于中-低脆弱性，西安市处于中-高脆弱性；下游省会城市多处于中-高脆弱性。社会脆弱性的主要驱动因子为第一产业从业人员占比；上游省会城市洪涝灾害社会脆弱性主要由低适应能力驱动，中、下游由高暴露度与高敏感性驱动。【结论】黄河流域九省会洪涝灾害社会脆弱性具有明显的时空异质性，防灾减灾措施应因地制宜，遵循自然规律；本研究验证了VSD模型在该区域社会脆弱性评价中的适用性。 |
| 关键词: 洪涝灾害；社会脆弱性；黄河流域；VSD模型；省会城市 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025273 |
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| Social vulnerability to flood disasters in the nine provinces of theYellow River Basin |
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NIU Wenxuan, DONG Jiayi, XU Panpan
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1. School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of the Ministry of Education, Xi’an 710054, China; 3. Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology and
Water Security in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of Ministry of Water Resources, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China;
4. Key Laboratory of Ecological Geology and Disaster Prevention, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xi’an 710054, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The Yellow River Basin is prone to urban flood disasters. Social vulnerability assessment is thus crucial for optimizing disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and promoting harmonious coexistence of ‘people, city, and water’. This study explores the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of urban flood social vulnerability of the nine province in the Yellow River Basin, in attempts to provide a guideline for regional flood disaster governance.【Method】Taking capitals of the nine provincial in the basin as examples, a social vulnerability assessment system for urban floods was constructed based on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) model. It was then used to evaluate the social vulnerability of the nine cities from 2011 to 2022. Cluster analysis was used to identify the key driving factors.【Result】There were significant spatiotemporal disparities in flood social vulnerability among the nine provincial capitals, with an overall increasing trend from the upper reaches to the lower reaches of the basin. Specifically, capitals in the upper reaches are mainly of medium-low vulnerability; in the middle reaches, Taiyuan is of medium-low vulnerability while Xi’an is of medium-high vulnerability; most capitals in the lower reaches are of medium-high vulnerability. The proportion of the primary industries are the dominant driver of social vulnerability. The social vulnerability of the upper-reach capitals was driven mainly by low adaptive capacity, whereas high exposure and high sensitivity dominate the vulnerability of mid- and lower-reach capitals.【Conclusion】The urban flood social vulnerability of the nine provincial capitals in the Yellow River Basin shows significant and spatiotemporal heterogeneity; it requires targeted disaster prevention and mitigation measures that adapt to local conditions. We demonstrated the applicability of the VSD model in social vulnerability assessment of urban floods, providing a methodology for other vulnerability assessment. |
| Key words: flood disaster; social vulnerability; Yellow River Basin; VSD model; provincial capital cities |
