| 引用本文: | 赵小勇,张 超,郭慧芳,等.基于改进PPAID模型和灰色模型的
浙江省水资源承载力研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(1):147-152. |
| ZHAO Xiaoyong,ZHANG Chao,GUO Huifang,et al.基于改进PPAID模型和灰色模型的
浙江省水资源承载力研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(1):147-152. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】对浙江省水资源承载力进行研究，提出水资源承载力提升对策。【方法】采用改进的投影寻踪绝对信息度量模型对浙江省水资源承载力进行动态评价，采用灰色模型对浙江省水资源承载力进行预测。【结果】浙江省2010—2023年水资源承载力评价等级为Ⅲ级（基本承载），2024—2030年水资源承载力预测等级为Ⅲ级（基本承载）。计算水资源方面、社会方面、经济方面和生态环境方面4类评价指标的贡献率，经济方面、生态环境方面评价指标对浙江省2023年水资源承载力的贡献率，已达到经济方面、生态环境方面评价指标对评价标准Ⅲ级（基本承载）的贡献率，水资源方面、社会方面评价指标对浙江省2023年水资源承载力的贡献率，均未达到水资源方面、社会方面评价指标对评价标准Ⅲ级（基本承载）的贡献率，存在短板。【结论】改进的PPAID模型能充分挖掘浙江省水资源承载力评价数据的非正态结构信息，偏离正态分布的程度最高，评价结果更加客观合理。 |
| 关键词: 水资源承载力；投影寻踪；信息散度；评价；预测 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025151 |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Modelling carrying capacity of water resources in Zhejiang Province |
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ZHAO Xiaoyong, ZHANG Chao, GUO Huifang, LIU Yuyu, PANG Guibin
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1. Zhejiang Tongji Vocational College of Science and Technology, Hangzhou 311231, China;
2. School of Water Conservacy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan 250022, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Zhejiang is an economically developed province in the Yangtze River Delta but faces prominent imbalances between rapid social-economic development and limited water resources, which restricts its high-quality development. Evaluating its water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and formulating targeted enhancement strategies are crucial for optimizing water resource allocation and ensuring sustainable development in the province. This paper evaluates the dynamic WRCC in Zhejiang Province, and proposes targeted enhancement strategies. 【Method】An improved projection pursuit absolute information deviation (PPAID) model was developed to evaluate the dynamic WRCC in the province. A grey prediction model was used to forecast the changes in WRCC in the near future in the province.【Result】①From 2010 to 2023, the WRCC in Zhejiang Province remained at Level III–the basic carrying capacity; predicted WRCC from 2024 to 2030 in the province will remain at Level III. ②Contribution rate analysis of the four dimensions-water resources, society, economy and ecological environment - indicated that in 2023, the contribution rates of economic and ecological environment indicators to WRCC in the province met the requirements of the Level III standard. In contrast, the contribution rates of water resources and social indicators did not reach the required Level III standard.【Conclusion】The improved PPAID model can effectively extract abnormal structural information of WRCC evaluation data in Zhejiang Province, especially for data with high deviation from normal distribution. The evaluation results are objective and reliable, and our findings provide guidelines for formulating targeted WRCC enhancement strategies in Zhejiang Province. |
| Key words: water resources carrying capacity; projection pursuit; information divergence; evaluation; predict |
