| 引用本文: | 杨佳慧,张 超,马晓蕾,等.基于蓝水、绿水、灰水足迹和LMDI模型的河南省农作物生产用水解析及驱动力分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(5):117-124. |
| YANG Jiahui,ZHANG Chao,MA Xiaolei,et al.基于蓝水、绿水、灰水足迹和LMDI模型的河南省农作物生产用水解析及驱动力分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(5):117-124. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究河南省农作物生产蓝、绿和灰水足迹的时空演化特征及驱动因素，为优化区域农业水资源配置提供依据。【方法】基于水足迹理论及CROPWAT模型，分析2000—2023年河南省主要农作物的蓝、绿和灰水足迹的时空格局，利用LMDI模型分解其驱动因素。【结果】河南省水足迹总量呈先升后降趋势，空间上异质性突出且较为稳定，蓝水足迹在东部地区较高，绿水和灰水足迹在南部地区较高。水足迹的空间分异主要受种植结构影响，东部灌溉小麦具有较高的蓝水足迹，南部花生与小麦-玉米雨养系统具有较高的绿水足迹，小麦-玉米集约轮作是灰水足迹变化的主因。驱动分解表明，经济效应（49.43%）＞技术效应（37.78%）＞人口效应（12.79%），其中经济增长是驱动水足迹增加的核心动力，而技术进步则通过提升用水效率成为主要抑制力量。乡村人口减少促使种植结构向“节劳节水”模式转型，强化了水足迹的下降趋势。【结论】河南省作为全国粮食主产区之一，提升农业水资源利用效率是协调水粮关系、抗稳粮食安全重任和实现农业高质量发展的关键路径。 |
| 关键词: 农作物；水足迹；驱动因素；LMDI；河南省 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025359 |
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| Assessment of crop water footprints and their driving factors using the LMDI model |
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YANG Jiahui, ZHANG Chao, MA Xiaolei, WU Yingmei
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1. Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China; 2. Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming 650092, China;
3. Institute of Geographic and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100101, China;
4. Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an 223300, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】With increasing water scarcity and growing demand for food, understanding agricultural water use has become critical for sustainable grain production. This paper proposes a method to study the spatiotemporal evolution of blue, green and grey water footprints of crop production, as well as their influencing factors, aiming to provide a framework to improve regional agricultural water allocation. 【Method】The analysis was based on water footprint theory and the CROPWAT model, with Henan Province taken as an illustrative example. The spatiotemporal patterns of blue, green, and grey water footprints of major crops across the province from 2000 to 2023 were analyzed. The driving factors of these changes were further decomposed and analyzed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. 【Result】①Temporally, the total water footprints of major crops in the province showed an ‘increase-decrease’ trend from 2000 to 2023. Spatially, water footprints showed significant and persistent heterogeneity across the province, with high blue water footprint in the east and high green and grey water footprints in the south. This spatial variation was mainly affected by different cropping systems, in which irrigated wheat in the east dominated the blue water footprint, and rain-fed peanut and wheat-maize systems increased the green water footprint in the south. Intensive wheat-maize rotation was the main contributor to the grey water footprint. ②Factor decomposition indicated that water footprints were predominantly influenced by the following factors: economic growth (49.43%)＞technological progress (37.78%)＞population (12.79%). Decrease in rural population had transformed agricultural structure toward a labor-saving and water-efficient type, which accelerated the downward trend of water footprints.【Conclusion】As a major grain-producing province, Henan is capable of coordinating its water-food nexus, ensuring food security and promoting high-quality agricultural development through improving efficiency of agricultural water resource utilization. |
| Key words: crops; water footprint; driving factor; LMDI; Henan Province |
