| 引用本文: | 门宝辉,高宏博,卞宗真,等.北京市水资源演变情势及供水结构变化分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(7):144-150. |
| Men Baohui,Gao Hongbo,Bian Zongzhen,et al.北京市水资源演变情势及供水结构变化分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(7):144-150. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析北京市水资源演变情势及供水结构变化。【方法】基于Copula函数和收敛交叉映射，提出了量化降水量和水资源量非线性关系的耦合方法，能够同时实现关系量化与因果验证，并将其应用到北京市水资源演变情势分析中。【结果】北京市水资源量呈波动上升趋势，与降水量呈强相关；降水量-水资源量上尾强相关（相关系数0.811），表明极端丰水事件同步性显著；降水量与水资源存在双向因果关系。随着南水北调中线水稳定供水以及再生水的达标使用，北京市的供水结构逐渐转型。【结论】外调水和再生水规模化应用驱动北京市形成“常规-非常规”、“自然-社会”双源供水新格局，地下水超采压力显著缓解，但降水量波动仍是系统性风险的核心来源，需要实施更加科学规范的管理措施。 |
| 关键词: 供水结构；水资源量；降水量；Copula分布；收敛交叉映射 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025332 |
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| Temporal variations in water resources and water supply structure in Beijing |
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Men Baohui, Gao Hongbo, Bian Zongzhen, Zhou Xiaoxiao, Wang Hongrui
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1. North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; 2. Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Beijing is a typical water-scarce megacity facing chronic water supply deficit. Alongside the optimization of regional water resource allocation, understanding temporal variations in water resources and water supply structure is crucial for improving water management and ensuring sustainable water utilization. This paper analyzes the dynamic changes in water resources and water supply structure in Beijing.【Method】Based on four decades of observational data, we constructed a framework by integrating the Copula function and convergent cross mapping (CCM) method to explore the nonlinear correlation between precipitation and total water resources and identify their causal relationships. Using this framework, we further analyzed temporal variations in Beijing’s water resources.【Result】Overall, water resources in Beijing have exhibited a fluctuating upward trend over the past four decades; they show a strong correlation with precipitation. Significant upper-tail dependence exists between precipitation and water resources, with a correlation coefficient of 0.811, indicating high synchronicity during extreme wet hydrological events. A bidirectional mutual causal relationship was detected between precipitation variability and regional water resources. Thanks to the water supplies from the middle South-to-North Water Diversion canal and increased reuse of reclaimed water, the water supply structure in Beijing has undergone profound transformation over the past four decades. 【Conclusion】The increased use of reclaimed water and water diverted from the Yangtze River Basin has reduced groundwater overexploitation. Interannual precipitation variations are key factor affecting regional water resources, underscoring the necessity of improving water resource management in the region. |
| Key words: water supply structure; water resources; precipitation; Copula distribution; convergent cross mapping |
