| 引用本文: | 乔 平,李 睿,吕桁良,等.邯郸市1974—2024年气温时空变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(7):163-173. |
| Qiao Ping,Li Rui,Lyu Hengliang,et al.邯郸市1974—2024年气温时空变化特征分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(7):163-173. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】深入研究邯郸市气温变化特征将有利于邯郸市科学应对气候变化，为农业生产提供基础支撑。【方法】基于邯郸16个气象站1974—2024年的逐日气温资料，采用经验正交函数（EOF）、Mann-Kendall检验法、Morlet小波分析法及R/S分析等方法，分析了邯郸市气温的时空变化特征，并预测未来变化趋势。【结果】时间尺度上，邯郸市年平均气温、年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温均呈波动上升的趋势，增温速率分别为0.39 ℃/10 a、0.26 ℃/10 a、0.56 ℃/10 a，其中年平均最低气温增幅最大；年极端最高气温和年极端最低气温也均呈波动上升的趋势，增温速率为0.24 ℃/10 a和0.73 ℃/10 a。冷暖期以20世纪90年代为界；四季平均气温也呈上升趋势，其中春季气温上升显著；空间尺度上，呈中部偏南区域气温较高，西部区域气温较低的特点；西部山区增温最快。年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温、年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温分别在2004、2016、2001、2021、2005年前后发生突变；年平均气温、年平均最高气温存在着振荡周期。【结论】邯郸市1974—2024年总体上呈暖化态势，且在全球变暖与城市化等因素驱动下，未来暖化大概率持续，同时伴随极端气温事件增多等特征。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化；气温；Morlet小波；R/S分析 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025387 |
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| Spatiotemporal variations of temperature in Handan City |
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Qiao Ping, Li Rui, Lyu Hengliang, Xie Xiangyong
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1. Handan Meteorological Bureau, Handan 056001, China;
2. Handan Key Laboratory of Smart Agriculture and Ecological Meteorological Services, Handan 056001, China;
3. Shuozhou Meteorological Bureau, Shuozhou 036002, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Temperature is an important factor affecting almost everything on the planet. This paper analyses the spatiotemporal variation of temperature in Handan City over the past five decades.【Method】The analysis was based on daily temperature data measured during 1974–2024 from 16 meteorological stations across the region. We systematically investigated the spatiotemporal variation in temperature and predicted its future changes using multiple statistical methods, including empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis.【Result】Temporally, the annual mean temperature, annual mean daily maximum temperature, and annual mean daily minimum temperature showed increasing but fluctuating trends, at increasing rates of 0.39 ℃/10 a, 0.26 ℃/10 a, and 0.56 ℃/10 a, respectively. Similarly, annual extreme maximum and minimum temperatures also showed increasing yet fluctuating trends, at the rates of 0.24 ℃/10 a and 0.73 ℃/10 a, respectively. A transition from a cold period to a warm period occurred in the 1990s. Seasonal mean temperature increased from 1974 to 2024, with spring temperature showing the most significant increase. Spatially, temperature was higher in the south-central region and lower in the western mountainous region. Abrupt changes occurred in 2004, 2016, 2001, 2021 and 2005 for annual mean temperature, annual mean maximum temperature, annual mean minimum temperature, annual extreme maximum temperature, and annual extreme minimum temperature, respectively. Both annual mean temperature and annual mean maximum temperature showed periodic oscillations.【Conclusion】Handan City experienced a significant rise in temperature from 1974 to 2024. Affected by global warming and regional urbanization, this warming trend is likely to continue, accompanied by an increased frequency of extreme temperature events. |
| Key words: climate change; air temperature; Morlet wavelet; R/S analysis |
