| 引用本文: | 何 锐,张德宁,赵 聪,等.基于组合赋权-TOPSIS的灌区现代化演变特征与障碍诊断[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(9):87-95. |
| He Rui,Zhang Dening,Zhao Cong,et al.基于组合赋权-TOPSIS的灌区现代化演变特征与障碍诊断[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(9):87-95. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示黄河下游引黄灌区现代化水平的长序列演变机制，探明不同发展阶段限制灌区可持续发展的关键瓶颈与驱动机制。【方法】以潘庄灌区为例，基于2001—2023年长序列统计数据，从水资源利用效率、社会经济效益及灌溉工程保障能力3个维度构建评价指标体系。运用博弈论组合赋权结合层次分析法与熵权法确定指标权重，采用TOPSIS模型对灌区现代化水平进行动态综合评价，并结合障碍度模型诊断关键障碍因子。【结果】①组合权重显示，灌区节水改造投资、农民人均收入及万元工业增加值用水量是影响评价结果的核心指标。②研究期内灌区现代化水平呈“波动上升-快速上升-近期稳定”的演变特征，综合评价值由0.275 3显著提升至0.665 1，水资源承载力从Ⅱ级向Ⅳ级跨越。③障碍度分析表明，障碍因子的演变具有明显的阶段性。【结论】潘庄灌区现代化发展成效显著，其核心制约要素已由早期的用水效率低下与管理薄弱逐步向当前的节水资金投入不稳与资源性缺水等方面转移，未来应重点关注长效投入机制与水土资源匹配优化。 |
| 关键词: 潘庄灌区；博弈论组合赋权；TOPSIS模型；障碍因子；水资源承载力 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2026042 |
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| Long-term changes and constraint analysis of irrigation district modernization: A case study of Panzhuang Irrigation District |
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He Rui, Zhang Dening, Zhao Cong, Ji Weiguang, Wang Zhongyuan, Wang Zhanhou, Chen Haorui, Wang Lei, Chang Xiaomin
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1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
2. Operation and Maintenance Center of Panzhuang Irrigation District, Dezhou 253000, China;
3. National Water-saving Irrigation Engineering Technology Research Center, Beijing 100048, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Irrigation district modernization is essential for improving irrigation water-use efficiency and facilitating sustainable water-resource management. In this paper, we analyzed the long-term changes in modernization of irrigation districts in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin and identified the key constraints and drivers that have hindered or facilitated modernization.【Method】We used the Panzhuang Irrigation District as a case study and constructed an evaluation index system covering water-resource use efficiency, socioeconomic benefits and irrigation-infrastructure support capacity, based on data collected from 2001 to 2023. A game- theory-based combined weighting method, integrated with the analytic hierarchy process and entropy-weight method, was used to determine the weights of individual indicators. The TOPSIS model was used to dynamically evaluate the modernization level, and an obstacle-degree model was used to diagnose the key factors constraining the modernization.【Result】①The combined weighting results indicated that investment in water-saving renovation projects, per capita income, and water consumption per 10 000 yuan of industry-added value were the three most important factors influencing the modernization level. ②From 2001 to 2023, the modernization level of the irrigation district followed a trajectory of ‘fluctuating growth-rapid growth-plateauing’ with the comprehensive evaluation score increasing from 0.275 3 to 0.665 1; meanwhile, the water-resource carrying capacity improved from Grade II to Grade IV. ③Obstacle-degree analysis revealed that the factors constraining modernization shifted substantially during the study period.【Conclusion】Modernization of the Panzhuang Irrigation District has made substantial progress, with the dominant constraints shifting from low water-use efficiency and poor management in the early stage to unstable investment and increasing water-resource scarcity in the later stage. Future modernization efforts should focus on establishing stable, long-term investment mechanisms and improving coordination of water and land resource usage to support sustainable development in the basin. |
| Key words: Panzhuang Irrigation District; game theory combined weighting; TOPSIS model; obstacle factor; water resource carrying capacity |
