| Cite this article: | 郑鹏,陈亚宁,王怀军.气候变化对天山地区极端径流的影响—以开都河为例[J].灌溉排水学报,2024,():-. |
| ZHENG Peng,CHEN Yaning,WANG Huaijun.气候变化对天山地区极端径流的影响—以开都河为例[J].灌溉排水学报,2024,():-. |
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| This article has been：Browse 159Times Download 31Times |
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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2023353 |
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| Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Runoff in the Tian Shan Region: A Case Study of the Kaidu River |
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ZHENG Peng1, CHEN Yaning2, WANG Huaijun3
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1.College of Geography and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University;2.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS;3.School of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Huaiyin Normal University,Huai’an
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 This study aims to elucidate the evolving patterns of extreme runoff in the Tianshan region and to estimate the characteristics of extreme runoff under different climate change scenarios.【Methods】Employing the Sen slope，MK test, Pettitt test, and probability distribution functions, coupled with the SWAT model and GCM models, we conducted an analysis of the distinctive features in the evolution of extreme runoff. 【Results】① Over the past 60 years, the annual, summer, autumn, and winter runoff in the Kaidu River Basin exhibited a non-significant increasing trend, while spring runoff demonstrated a significant increasing trend. Additionally, the correlation between runoff changes and precipitation was found to be greater than that with contemporaneous temperature. ② The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme runoff showed an escalating trend, whereas the initial flood time exhibited a significantly delayed trend. ③The Log-Pearson3 function exhibited optimal performance in simulating extreme runoff, with a 50-year return period the number of flood events, the Maximum duration of spell events, and the Average spell peak being 7.09 times, 79.04 days, and 180.04 m3/s, respectively. ④ Under future climate change scenarios, the frequency of floods will increase, extreme intensity (The average annual maximum flow) will amplify, and the duration (Maximum duration of spell events, Average duration of spell events) as well as average intensity (Average spell volume, Average spell peak) will decrease. The initial flood time of extreme runoff in the Kaidu River Basin displayed an advancing trend, and the recurrence levels of extreme runoff intensity (Average spell volume, Average spell peak, The average annual maximum flow) were highest and lowest under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios, respectively.【Conclusion】The study concludes that climate change significantly influences extreme runoff in the Tianshan region, leading to more frequent occurrences of extreme runoff events and more severe instances of single large floods in the future. These findings hold crucial guiding implications for the development of climate change adaptation strategies and water resource management plans. |
| Key words: Climate change; Extreme runoff; SWAT model; Tian Shan; Kaidu River |
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