| This article has been：Browse 1768Times Download 2790Times |
scan it! |
|
|
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.20190133 |
|
| Simulating dynamics of groundwater in north china plain under uncertain climate change |
|
QIN Huanhuan, SUN Zhanxue, GAO Bai, CHEN Yiping， LAI Dongrong, WAN Wei
|
|
1. State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China; 2. School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China; 3. School of Earth Sciences, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Global climate change could result in frequent occurrence of extreme weathers, exerting extra pressure on already dwindling groundwater resource in most arid and semi-arid regions in the world. In this paper we analyze how groundwater in north China Plain (NCP) would change under an uncertain climate change.【Method】The analysis was model-based. We considered three scenarios representing wet, normal and dry climatic conditions as predicted from the A1B carbon dioxide emission. The dynamics of both surface and subsurface water was simulated using the MIKE SHE model.【Result】Change in groundwater level, groundwater recharge and aquifer storage were all positively correlated to the degree of dry and wet weather. Compared with the status quo scenario, the groundwater level in the wet and normal scenarios will rise at a rate of 0.156~0.295 m/a and 0.007~ 0.090 m/a, respectively, while fall at a rate of 0.106~0.345 m/a in the dry scenario. Compared with the status quo scenario, the aquifer storage in the wet and normal scenarios will recover at 6.86 km3/a and 0.84 km3/a respectively, but decline at 6.58 km3/a in the dry scenario. Groundwater recharge in the wet and normal scenarios will increase by 53.1% and 8.5% respectively, whereas reduce by 69.2% in the dry scenario.【Conclusion】Dwindling groundwater resource is a bottleneck in social development of the NCP, and to improve sustainability of the groundwater use, available mitigations include reducing evapotranspiration, increasing urbanization and developing water-saving irrigation technologies, although diverting surface water from south China also helps. Achieving this goal needs collaborative efforts from the whole society. |
| Key words: Climate change; MIKE SHE model; groundwater; sustainable utilization; North China Plain |
|
|
