| 引用本文: | 邢贞相,王欣,宫兴龙,等.理想和实际资料情况下Nash模型参数异参同效性研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(12):114-122. |
| XING Zhenxiang,WANG Xin,GONG Xinglong,et al.理想和实际资料情况下Nash模型参数异参同效性研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(12):114-122. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究异参同效问题对水文模型参数率定的影响。【方法】以黑龙江农垦红兴隆分局所辖的双鸭山农场和友谊农场为研究区域，在理想资料和实际资料2种情况下，构建了基于SCE-UA算法的模拟优化模型，分别对Nash模型参数进行了优化并分析了参数率定过程中的异参同效现象的表现特征。理想资料排除了水文模型输入资料、模型结构以及模型输出等方面的误差对模型参数率定过程的干扰。【结果】在2种情况下，异参同效现象在Nash模型参数率定过程中的表现特征为对较优似然值对应的参数组取值范围的影响和最优似然值对应的参数组数量的影响。对不同场次洪水而言，2种情况下异参同效的2方面表现特征均与输入洪水的洪量以及洪峰的大小有关，即随着输入洪水的洪量和洪峰的增加，异参同效现象越明显。对同一洪水而言，在理想资料情况下参数率定过程中的异参同效显著程度小于实际资料情况下异参同效显著程度。【结论】在水文模型参数率定过程中，应基于不同输入资料情况下参数异参同效特征分析，选取合理的参数率定方法，尽量避免或消除异参同效对参数率定的不利影响，提高模型预报精度。 |
| 关键词: 异参同效； SCE-UA； Nash模型； 理想资料； 实际资料 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.20180177 |
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| Equifinality of the Nash Model Parameters Using Idealized and Measured Data |
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XING Zhenxiang, WANG Xin, GONG Xinglong, FU Qiang, DONG Hongtao
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1. School of Water Conservancy and Architecture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China;2. Key Laboratory of Water-saving Agriculture of Regular Institutions of Higher Education, Harbin 150030, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The purpose of this work is to study the influence of equifinality phenomenon on accuracy of the Nash model parameter calibration. 【Method】 The Nash model parameters were calculated by the simulation-optimization model based on SCE-UA, using both idealized data and measured data. Taking Shuangyashan Farm and Youyi Farm in Hongxinglong Land Reclamation Administration in Heilongjiang province as an example, the performance of the equifinality phenomenon in parameter calibration was analyzed. The idealized data can eliminate the uncertainty caused by errors in the input data, model inaccuracy and model parameters in the calibration. 【Result】 Performance of the equifinality phenomenon in the Nash model parameter calibration was represented in value range and number of optimal parameters for both the idealized data and the measured data. For different flooding events, the performance of the equifinality phenomenon in terms of the two aspects was associated with the flooding volume and flooding peak for the two case studies. Specifically, the equifinality phenomenon was more noticeable with the increases in flooding volume and flooding peak. Under the same flooding event, the equifinality phenomenon was more noticeable in the parameter calibration for the idealized data than for the measured data. 【Conclusion】 In parameter calibration of hydrological model based on the equifinality phenomenon using different data sources, a proper parameter calibration method should be used to eliminate the unfavorable influence of the equifinality so as to improve accuracy of the model. |
| Key words: equifinality; SCE-UA; Nash model; ideal data; actual data |
