| 引用本文: | 张静文,刘章君,池泽涌,等.江西省农田灌溉用水变化驱动因子识别及贡献率分解[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
| Zhang Jingwen,LIU Zhangjun,CHI Zeyong,et al.江西省农田灌溉用水变化驱动因子识别及贡献率分解[J].灌溉排水学报,0,():-. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】江西省农田灌溉用水变化极大地影响了用水总量，识别农田灌溉用水量的驱动因子，揭示其影响机制和变化特征能够为科学管理农业取用水提供重要参考。【方法】分析江西省及各地市用水结构信息熵及均衡度演变特征，采用LMDI分解法识别影响农田灌溉用水量的驱动因子，并定量评估其贡献率，重点研究其与气象因素的关系，为优化用水结构、发挥水资源刚性约束作用提供支撑。【结果】基于LMDI分解法识别的江西省及各地市农田灌溉用水变化驱动因子为亩均净灌溉用水量、农田灌溉水有效利用系数、有效灌溉面积和实际灌溉比例，其中农田灌溉水有效利用系数始终以抑制因子表现，其余3个因子表现出双向性；相关性分析结果显示，亩均净灌溉用水量及其贡献主要受降雨影响；仅考虑非气象驱动因素，江西省大部分时段农田灌溉用水变化量表现为负值，说明灌溉工程状况和管理水平不断增强，农田灌溉用水量降低的主要原因是农田灌溉水有效利用系数的提高；省内上饶、抚州、宜春、吉安、赣州5个重点地市具有较高的农业节水需求和潜力。【结论】考虑到实际灌溉比例和有效灌溉面积将保持持续增长态势，建议江西省抓住重点地市采取措施，如大力推进大中型灌区节水改造、增强灌区科学调配水资源的能力等，促进全省农田灌溉水有效利用系数加快增长，以达到提升灌溉用水效率、挖掘农业节水潜力、缓解用水压力目的。 |
| 关键词: LMDI;影响因子;亩均净灌溉用水量;农田灌溉水有效利用系数 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S271 |
| 基金项目:江西省水利厅科技项目(202224ZDKT01)；水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022036)；江西省“科技+水利”联合计划(2022KSG01005) |
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| Identification of driving factors and decomposition of contribution rate of water changes for irrigation water in Jiangxi Province |
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Zhang Jingwen1, LIU Zhangjun1, CHI Zeyong2, CHENG Jingqing1, LI Gang1
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1.Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering，Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment of Poyang;2.Institute of Microbiology, Jiangxi Academy of Sciences
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The changes in irrigation water in Jiangxi Province greatly affect the total water consumption.Identifying the irrigation water drivers and revealing its driving mechanism and variation characteristic can serve as a reference for the scientific management of agricultural water intake and usage.【Method】By Analyzing the information entropy and balance degree of water utilization structure in Jiangxi Province and cities, the LMDI decomposition method was employed to identify the driving factors affecting irrigation water and to quantitatively assess their contribution rates. With a focus on the relationship with meteorological factors, this study provides a reference for scientifically calculating the annual total water consumption and exerting the rigid constraints of water resources.【Result】The driving factors for changes in agricultural irrigation water consumption in Jiangxi Province identified based on LMDI decomposition method are net irrigation water consumption per acre, effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water, effective irrigation area, and actual irrigation ratio. The effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water always shows inhibition factor, while the other three factors show bidirectional characteristics. The results of correlation analysis showed that net irrigation water consumption per acre and its contribution are mainly affected by rainfall. When considering only non-weather-related driving factors, the changes in agricultural irrigation water consumption in Jiangxi Province are primary negative values, indicating that the status and management level of irrigation engineering are constantly improving, and the increase in the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water is the main reason for the decrease in agricultural irrigation water consumption. Five cities, including Shangrao, Fuzhou, Yichun, Jian, and Ganzhou have a higher potential and demand for agricultural water-saving.【Conclusion】Considering the expected continuous growth trend of the actual irrigation ratio and effective irrigation area, it’s recommended that Jiangxi Province takes necessary measures in these cities, such as vigorously promoting water-saving transformation in large and medium-sized irrigation areas and improving the scientific allocation capacity of water resources in irrigation areas, to accelerate the growth of the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water in the whole province, and thus enhance irrigation water efficiency, tap the potential of agricultural water-saving, and alleviate water pressure. |
| Key words: LMDI;impact factor;net irrigation water consumption per acre;effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water |
