| 引用本文: | 肖月洁,杨中牮,马 历,等.基于模糊综合评价的四川省水土资源承载力时空演变分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(5):106-114. |
| XIAO Yuejie,YANG Zhongjian,MA Li,et al.基于模糊综合评价的四川省水土资源承载力时空演变分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(5):106-114. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】正确认识和评价水土资源承载力，为四川省水土资源高效利用、生态文明建设提供科学依据。【方法】基于四川省经济社会、资源环境等相关数据，构建模糊综合评价模型，分析了四川省水土资源承载力的动态变化及区域差异。【结果】2005—2014年，四川省水土资源承载力整体呈波动缓慢上升趋势，其中压力子系统与响应子系统均缓慢上升，与水土资源承载力变化趋势基本一致；状态子系统评价指数呈明显波动上升趋势。从空间分布特征看，高等承载力区主要集中在东、中部地区，呈现出东高西低的特点。相对而言，2005—2014年四川省各市州水土资源承载力呈不同程度的波动变化。川中平原区、川东北丘区的大部分市州水土资源承载力有减小趋势，而川南丘区、川西高原区和攀西山地区整体呈上升态势。【结论】2005年以来，四川省的水土资源承载力小幅提升，但仍有较大的改善需求和空间。为全面提升水土资源承载力，提出了通过供给侧改革转变经济发展方式、严格控制用水定额和执行土地使用管制制度、重视水土资源的生态环境功能等对策。 |
| 关键词: 水土资源； 承载力； 时空演变； 模糊评价； 四川省 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0345 |
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| Spatiotemporal Change in Carrying-capacity of Land and Water Resources in Sichuan Province Calculated Using Fuzzy Assessment Method |
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XIAO Yuejie , YANG Zhongjian , MA Li , TANG Hong
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School of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China; Sichuan Center for Rural Development Research, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Quantitatively understanding the carrying capacity of land and water resources in a region is essential to their sustainable use and in this paper, we analysed the carrying capacity of land and water resources in Sichuan province. 【Method】 Using data available on economy, society, resources and environment across the province, we calculated the dynamic change and regional difference of the carrying capacity using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. 【Result】 The calculated carrying capacity in the province showed a slow increase from 2005 to 2014. Consistent with the carrying capacity, the pressure subsystem, the response subsystem and the evaluation index of the state subsystem also showed an increase during the same period. Spatially, the carrying capacity was high in the east and central part of the province, while, on average, it decreased slightly from the east to the west. In all regions, there was a slight fluctuation in carrying capacity in 10 years from 2005 to 2014. In the meantime, the carrying capacity of the central plain areas and the northeast hilly areas saw a decline, while the southern hilly area and the western plateau area as well as the Panxi mountain area witnessed a rise. 【Conclusion】Since 2005, the carrying capacity of the land and water resources across the province has slightly improved, but there is still room for improvement. To improve the carrying capacity, we proposed to transform the economic development model by reforming the supply-chain, strictly controlling water allocation, implementing the land-use control system, and publicizing the importance of eco-environmental functions of the land and the water resources. |
| Key words: land and water resources; bearing capacity; spatiotemporal evolution; fuzzy evaluation; Sichuan province |
