| 引用本文: | 黎清霞,李佩怡,何艳虎,等.澜沧江流域中下游主要水文气象要素变化相关性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(9):100-107. |
| LI Qingxia,LI Peiyi,HE Yanhu,et al.澜沧江流域中下游主要水文气象要素变化相关性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(9):100-107. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探索澜沧江流域水资源在变化环境下的响应机制。【方法】基于1967—2006年的水文气象资料，通过线性回归、相关分析法和随机森林重要性评分法分析了澜沧江中下游的水文气象要素月变化及其相关性。【结果】①1967—2006年澜沧江中下游月均降水量变化不显著；月均气温显著上升；月均蒸发量变化不明显，中游整体呈下降趋势，下游整体呈上升趋势；旱季（11—4月）月均径流量显著增加；②总体上，澜沧江中下游平均径流量雨季（5—10月）与气温负相关，旱季时与气温正相关；③径流量在湿季受蒸发量和降水量影响较大；旧州站径流量11—次年2月主要受气温和降水量影响，3—4月则是受降水量和蒸发量影响较大，与重要度评分结果大体一致；戛旧站干季时与径流量相关系数较大者依次为降水量和气温，重要度评分较大者依次为气温和蒸发量；④旧州站月均流量与各气象要素的相关系数绝对值均在0.9以下，戛旧站月均流量与各气象要素的相关系数绝对值均在0.5以下。【结论】变化环境下澜沧江中下游月均径流量的响应受时空变化的影响，旧州站雨季月均流量受气候变化影响较大，相较于气象要素变化，戛旧站月均流量主要受梯级电站建设和运行等人类活动影响。 |
| 关键词: 澜沧江； 水文气象； 相关分析； 随机森林 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0614 |
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| Correlative Analysis of Major Hydro-meteorological Factors in the Downstream of the Lancang River |
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LI Qingxia, LI Peiyi, HE Yanhu, CHEN Dongwei
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1. Baiyun District Center of Water Engineering Construction and Management, Guangzhou 510600, China; 2. Research Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China; 3. Power China Guiyang Engineering Corporation Limited, Guiyang 550081, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Water resources in a region depends on combined effects of a number of hydro-metrological factors and this paper analyzed the correlation of monthly hydro-meteorological factors. 【Method】 We took the middle and down reaches of the Lancang River as an example and calculated the correlation of various hydro-metrological factors measured from 1867 to 2006, using linear regression, correlation analysis and random forest method.【Result】 In the past 40 years, the monthly precipitation and evaporation in the region did not show noticeable change, but the temperature and the runoff during the dry season had increased remarkably. The monthly evaporation had been in decline in the middle reached while risen in the low reaches. The monthly runoff in the middle and low reaches was affected by climate change, with the runoff positively related to precipitation and negatively correlated with evaporation. It negatively related to temperature in rainy seasons and positively in dry season. The runoff at Jiuzhou Hydrologic Station was mainly affected by the temperature and precipitation from November to February but by the precipitation and evaporation from March to April. Correlation analysis showed that during the dry season, the main influencing climate factors at Gajiu Hydrologic Station were precipitation and temperature, while the Random forest revealed that the temperature and the evapotranspiration were the driving force. We also found that the absolute correlation coefficient at Jiuzhou Hydrologic Station was less than 0.9, and at Hydrologic Station was less than 0.5. 【Conclusion】 The response of the monthly average runoff in the middle and low reaches of the Lancang River changed spatiotemporally. The runoff at Jiuzhou Hydrologic Station was mainly affected by the climate in rainy season, while the runoff at Gajiu Hydrologic Station was affected mainly by human activities, including construction and operation of hydropower Stations. |
| Key words: Lancang River; hydro meteorological elements; correlation analysis; random forest |
