| 引用本文: | 郭树龙,温季,姜新.基于SPEI的1960—2015年江汉平原旱涝规律分析及预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(9):108-115. |
| GUO Shulong,WEN Ji,JIANG Xin.基于SPEI的1960—2015年江汉平原旱涝规律分析及预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(9):108-115. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】明确湖北省江汉平原的旱涝演变规律。【方法】基于5个气象站1960—2015年实测资料，利用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），统计分析了其旱涝变化情况，并采用Mann-Kendall突变检验分析其变化趋势，同时采用马尔柯夫链预测模型预测了2016—2020年旱涝情况。【结果】 Mann-Kendall趋势分析平均气温以0.238 ℃/10 a上升，降水量以0.368 mm/10 a增加，参考作物腾发量(ET0)以0.028 mm/10 a增加，降水的增幅比ET0增幅大。SPEI-1以0.013/10 a增加，SPEI-3以0.018/10 a增加，SPEI-12以0.038/10 a增加，随着时间尺度的增加，SPEI增加趋势变大。春秋二季向干旱化发展，夏冬二季向洪涝化发展。2016—2020年该地区发生了持续时间最长的一次干旱过程为4个月，最干旱年份为1966年，最干旱月份为1963年1月；历时最长的一次洪涝过程为9个月，最涝年份为1983年，最涝月份为1983年10月。基于马尔柯夫链预测模型，2016年发生干旱的概率为45%，而发生洪涝的概率为35%，2017年发生干旱的概率为30.61%，而发生洪涝的概率为29.71%，2018—2020年干旱发生的概率为35%左右，洪涝发生的概率为30%左右。【结论】该地区向着湿润化发展，但是2016—2020年发生干旱的概率大于发生洪涝的概率。 |
| 关键词: 旱涝； 江汉平原地区； SPEI |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0514 |
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| Using SPEI to Analyze the Droughts from 1960 to 2015 in Jianghan Plain |
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GUO Shulong， WEN Ji， JIANG Xin
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Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang 453002， China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Jianghan Plain in Hubei Province is susceptible to waterlogging and drought due to its low elevation. This paper aimed to analyze the occurrence of drought and flooding in the plains based on historical data. 【Method】 The analysis was based on the meteorological data measured from 1960 to 2015 from five meteorological stations in the region. The standard evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the Mann-Kendall mutation test as well as the Markov Process prediction were used to study the droughts and flooding and predict the probability of drought and flooding in 2016—2020. 【Result】 The Mann-Kendall trend analysis showed that the average temperature had been risen at 0.238 ℃/10 a, the precipitation increased at 0.368 mm/10 a and ET0 (evapotranspiration) increased at 0.028 mm/10 a. The precipitation increased faster that ET0, with the SPEI-1 increasing at the rate of 0.013/10 a, SPEI-3 at the rate of 0.018/10 a and SPEI-12 at the rate of 0.038/10 a. The SPEI was scale dependent, increasing with the scale. The Jianghan Plain appeared to be dry in spring and autumn, but wet in summer and winter. The longest drought lasted for 4 months, and the driest year occurred in 1966, and the driest month was in January of 1963. The longest flooding lasted for 9 months; the wettest year was in 1983, and the wettest month was in October of 1983. The prediction using the Markov Process showed that the probability of a drought was 45% and of a flooding was 35% in 2016. The probability of a drought was 30.61%, and of flooding was 29.71% in 2017. Annually, the probability of a drought was around 35% and the probability of a flooding was around 30% from 2018 to 2020. 【Conclusion】 Jianghan Plain trends to become increasingly wet but the probability of occurrence of a drought is lager than the occurrence of a flooding between 2016 and 2020. |
| Key words: drought； Jianghan plain； SPEI |
