| 引用本文: | 杨 丽,刘海军,唐晓培,等.气候变化下河北省宁晋县参考作物蒸散量变化趋势及敏感性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(1):97-105. |
| YANG Li,LIU Haijun,TANG Xiaopei,et al.气候变化下河北省宁晋县参考作物蒸散量变化趋势及敏感性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(1):97-105. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】深入分析宁晋县气候变化及其蒸散发的变化，为该区域的作物种植管理和灌溉计划制定提供参考。【方法】根据1981—2018年河北省宁晋县气象站的逐日气象资料，计算了极端气候指数，并利用FAO56 Penman-Monteith公式计算了参考作物蒸散量（ET0）。分析了各气象要素、极端气候指数和ET0的变化趋势，并利用敏感性分析找出影响ET0变化的主要气象因子。【结果】1981—2018年河北省宁晋县降水量无明显变化趋势，平均温度呈显著上升趋势，日照时间、相对湿度和风速呈显著下降趋势；极端高温指标呈上升趋势，极端低温指标呈下降趋势，极端降水指标无显著变化。【结论】相对湿度是ET0年均值主要影响因子；夏季对ET0月均值影响最大的气象因素为净辐射，其他季节，相对湿度对其影响最大；风速和辐射的降低不仅抵消了温度升高和相对湿度降低对ET0的正影响，还使得ET0呈下降趋势，但下降趋势不显著。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化；极端气候；参考作物蒸散量；敏感性分析 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2020303 |
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| Variation of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration and Its Sensitivity Analysis in Ningjin County of Hebei Province under a Changing Climate |
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YANG Li, LIU Haijun*, TANG Xiaopei, GAO Zhuangzhuang, FENG Dongxue
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Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Agricultural production in Ningjin county of Hebei province relies on irrigation and understanding crops demand for water and its evapotranspiration is essential to improving agricultural water management. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the potential variation in evapotranspiration across the county under a climate projected to change.【Method】Meteorological data measured daily from 1981 to 2018 at the weather station in the county was used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) using the FAO56 Penman-Monteith formula. We also calculated the extreme climate indexes and how each meteorological factor trended. The impact of each meteorological factor on ET0 was estimated by sensitivity analysis.【Result】The change in precipitation in the county did not show noticeable trends in the studied period, but the average temperature had risen significantly accompanied by a significant decrease in sunshine hours, relative humidity and wind speed. The extreme temperature indexes for high temperature events trended up while the indexes for extreme low temperature events trended down, with extreme precipitation indexes not showing noticeable change. The annual average ET0 was impacted by the relative humidity most, while the monthly average ET0 was most sensitive to net radiation in summer and to relative humidity in other seasons. The decrease in wind speed and radiation appeared to have overwhelmed the positive influence of temperature rise and relative humidity drop on ET0, leading the ET0 to decline although not at significant level.【Conclusion】Most meteorological factors in the county had showed substantial changes from 1981-2018, but, surprisingly, their combination did not lead to a significant change in ET0. |
| Key words: climate change; extreme climates; reference crop evapotranspiration; sensitivity analysis |
