| 引用本文: | 黄 星,陈伏龙,赵 琪,等.新疆和田河径流演变特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(4):88-96. |
| HUANG Xing,CHEN Fulong,ZHAO Qi,et al.新疆和田河径流演变特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(4):88-96. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】研究和田河径流演变特征及其影响因素。【方法】采用M-K检验、Pettitt突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法，分析径流及影响因素的变化趋势、突变特征及周期规律。在确定影响因素与径流的相关性基础上，建立了影响因素与径流的多元线性方程及神经网络模型，定量分析了气候因素与人类活动对径流变化的贡献水平。【结果】玉龙喀什河径流表现出增加趋势，喀拉喀什河径流呈减少趋势，突变年份为2009、2004年，在40~55 a尺度下的玉龙喀什河与33~55 a尺度下的喀拉喀什河都经历2个枯-丰变换周期。玉龙喀什河、喀拉喀什河降水量都呈显著增加趋势，突变年份均为2001年，两河降水同时展现出3次偏多-偏少交替。年均气温呈显著性增加，在1984年发生突变，气温经过2个冷-暖变换周期。玉龙喀什河与喀拉喀什河径流变化的主要影响因素为气候变化，人类活动影响较小，气候变化对径流的贡献率分别为84.06%和72.51%，而人类活动的贡献率为15.94%和27.49%。【结论】玉龙喀什河和喀拉喀什河在40~55、33~55 a尺度下由丰水期转为枯水期，玉龙喀什河和喀拉喀什河流域降水未来为少水期，和田河流域气温在40~50 a尺度下处于偏暖阶段。喀拉喀什河突变点与乌鲁瓦提水库的修建有关，降水和气温发生突变时间于西北地区气候转变相一致。气温因素是径流补给的主要影响成分，气候变化为径流变化的主要因素。 |
| 关键词: 径流；影响因素；贡献率；周期性；和田河 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2020508 |
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| Change in Runoff in Hotan River in Xinjiang and Its Determinants |
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HUANG Xing, CHEN Fulong, ZHAO Qi, HE Chaofei, LONG Aihua
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1. College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China;2. Hydrology Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830000, China; 3. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background and objective】Global warming and anthropogenic activities have combined altering the runoff in the Hotan river in Xinjiang. The objective of this paper is to analyze the change in its runoff and the factors that affected it, and to predict how the runoff will trend in response to anthropogenic activities and environmental change respectively.【Method】Evolution in the runoff, its periodicity and abnormal changes, as well as their determinants were analyzed using the M-K test, Pettitt mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis and other methods. The correlation between the runoff and its determinants was analyzed using the correlation test method; multiple linear equation and neural network models were established to link the runoff and its determinants to separate the contribution of climate factors and anthropogenic activities to the runoff. 【Result】①The runoff in Yulong Kashi river has been in increase, while it does not show noticeable change in Kara Kashi river. Abnormal runoff change occurred in 2009 and 2004. There were two dry-wet cycles in the period of 40~55 years for Yulong Kashi river and period of 33~55 year for Kara Kashi river. Precipitation in both Yulong Kashi and Kara Kashi rivers has been in increase and there have been three abundant-less cycles in each, with an abnormal change occurring in 2001. The average annual temperature in the two rivers has increased significantly, with an abnormal change in 1984. The temperature has seen two cold-warm cycles. ②The main determinants of the runoff change in the two rivers are climate change, which contributed to 84.06% and 72.51% of the runoff change in the two rivers, compared to 15.94% and 27.49% caused by anthropogenic activities. 【Conclusion】 The periodicity of wet-dry cycles in Yulong Kashi and Kara Kashi river was 40~55 a and 33~55 a respectively; rainfall in the two rivers will decrease. The abrupt change in the runoff in Kara Kashi river is largely due to the construction of the Uluwati reservoir; the change in precipitation and temperature coincides with climate change in northwest China. Temperature affects recharge to the runoff, while climate change drives the change in runoff. |
| Key words: runoff; influence factors; contribution rate; periodic; Hotan river |
