| 引用本文: | 郑灵巧,邢 坤,刘思海,等.开都河源区径流量演变规律及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2023,42(5):100-107. |
| ZHENG Lingqiao,XING Kun,LIU Sihai,et al.开都河源区径流量演变规律及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2023,42(5):100-107. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】厘清气候变化下开都河源区的径流演变规律及其影响因素，为流域水资源开发利用提供科学参考。【方法】基于开都河源区1960—2019年的水文气象数据，采用Mann-Kendall检验法、R/S分析法、有序聚类法、小波分析法，分析开都河源区径流量演变规律，并基于双累积曲线法、累积斜率变化率法、气候弹性系数法定量分析气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。【结果】1960—2019年，开都河源区年径流量以1.714×108 m3/10 a的速率增加，Hurst指数为0.83，径流量变化存在3个主周期，分别为36、21、9 a，径流量突变点为1995年；开都河源区气温和降水量分别以0.239 ℃/10 a和7.670 mm/10 a的速率增加，Hurst指数分别为0.85和0.83，与径流量的相关系数分别为0.560和0.598；基于双累积曲线法、累积斜率变化率法、气候弹性系数法得出的气候变化对开都河源区径流量变化的贡献率分别为89.9%、73.1%、43%，人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分别为10.1%、26.9%、57%，3种方法对基准期径流量模拟的误差分别为2.1%、0.2%、4.1%。【结论】开都河源区年径流量呈极显著增加趋势，气候变化是导致径流量增加的主要原因。 |
| 关键词: 开都河；径流量；演变规律；影响因素 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022570 |
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| Evolution of Runoff and Its Influencing Factors in the Source Area of the Kaidu River |
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ZHENG Lingqiao, XING Kun, LIU Sihai, GUO Chunhong
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1. School of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China;
3. Xinjiang Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design Administration Bureau, Urumqi 830000, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The Kaidu River is a tributary of the Tarim River, located in northwestern China. This paper analyzes the evolution of runoff in its source area as well as its determinants.【Method】The study is based on meteorological and hydrological data measured over the past 60 years from the area. The evolution of the runoff is analyzed using the Mann - Kendall examination, R/S method, order clustering method, and the method of wavelet analysis. The impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the runoff is calculated using the double accumulation curve method, the cumulative slope change rate method, and the climate elastic coefficient method. 【Results】①From 1960 to 2019, the annual runoff in the area had been increasing at an average rate of 1.714×108 m3/10 a, with the Hurst index being 0.83. The runoff is found to have three identified periods of 36 years, 21 years, and 9 years; additionally, an abrupt change in the runoff is also identified in 1995. ②Over the past 60 years, temperature and precipitation in the area had increased at a rate of 0.239 ℃/10 a and 7.670 mm/10 a, respectively, with their associated Hurst index being 0.85 and 0.83, and the correlation coefficients being 0.560 and 0.598, respectively. ③The contribution of climate to the change in the runoff calculated by the double cumulative curve method, the cumulative slope change rate method and the climate elasticity coefficient method is 89.9%, 73.1% and 43%, respectively, while the associated contribution of anthropogenic activities calculated by the three methods to the change is 10.1%, 26.9% and 57%, respectively; their associated errors for the base runoff are 2.1%, 0.2% and 4.1%, respectively.【Conclusion】The annual runoff in the source area of the Kaidu River over the past 60 years has increased significantly and the contribution to this change is mainly from climate change. |
| Key words: Kaidu River; runoff; law of evolution; influencing factors |
