| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究鄱阳湖五河入湖水沙丰枯变化及其影响因素。【方法】基于鄱阳湖“五河”流域控制水文站的径流量—输沙量资料，利用滑动相关系数法、双累积曲线法和Copula函数，揭示了流域水沙演变规律，定量评估不同时期流域水沙丰枯遭遇事件发生的概率。【结果】五河入湖总径流量呈增加趋势，其中修水增加趋势显著，总输沙量呈显著减少趋势，而饶河输沙量呈显著增多趋势；五河入湖水沙关系除抚河外都出现突变变化，其中信江水沙关系突变后径流量增幅最大为15.9%，赣江输沙量降幅最多为67.3%，饶河P3时期（2004—2018）的输沙量相较P1时期（1956—1971）增幅高达100.3%；不同时期“五河”水沙丰枯异步的概率要小于丰枯同步，且丰枯同平的概率最高；【结论】极端降水特征、水土保持项目的实施、水库建设和河道采砂对流域水沙变化影响深远。 |
| 关键词: Copula函数；水沙关系；鄱阳湖流域；气候变化；人类活动 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022207 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| High and Low Water and Sediment Flows in the Five Tributaries of Poyang Lake |
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JIAN Hongfu，HAN Huiming
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1. Jiangxi Academy of Water Sciences and Engineering, Nanchang 330029, China;
2. Jiangxi Provincial Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Water Engineering in Poyang Lake Basin, Nanchang 330029, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Located in Jiangxi province, Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China. It has five tributaries, and this paper analyzes the change in water and sediment flows at their confluences with the lake. 【Method】 The study was based on runoffs and sediments measured from hydrological stations in the five tributaries. Temporal evolutions of water flow and sediment transport were analyzed using the sliding correlation coefficient method, double cumulative curve method, and copula function. We also calculated the probability of occurrence of flooding and droughts during different periods in the basin. 【Result】The analysis showed an overall increase in total runoff in all five tributaries, with the most significant increase observed in the Xiu River. In contrast, the total sediment flow exhibited a significant decrease, except the Rao River which showed a significant increase in sediment flow. Abrupt changes in water-sediment relationship were identified for all tributaries, except the Fuhe River. Following the abrupt changes, the Xinjiang River experienced a maximum increase in runoff (15.9%), whereas Ganjiang River had a maximum decrease (67.3%). Compared with the 1956—1971 period, the runoff in the Raohe River in the 2004—2018 period increased by 100.3%. Asynchrony between high and low levels of water and sediments in the five tributaries was less probable compared to synchronous high and low levels, with the highest probability observed for the same level of high and low levels. 【Conclusion】 Extreme precipitation, soil and water conservation projects, reservoir construction, and sand mining in the tributaries and lake are the factors that have significantly influenced water and sediment changes in the basin. |
| Key words: Copula function; water-sediment relationship; Poyang Lake Basin; climate change; human activities |
