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| DOI： |
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| Risk Model of Water Resources Shortage under the Condition of Natural Water Supply and Its Application in Irrigation District |
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LIN Xiaomin, ZHANG Jinping, JIN Yuying, LI Yanyan
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Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450000, China
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the annual measured rainfall and reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0) data series from 1970 to 2013 at the Luhun irrigation district, the risk model of water resources shortage under the condition of natural water supply at the Luhun irrigation district was established through Frank Copula function method， the joint distribution and encountered probability of combination events of supply and demand of water resources under the condition of natural water supply were calculated and analyzed. The results showed that the relationship between rainfall and ET0 could be well described by the application of Frank Copula function and the joint distribution model based on Frank Copula function was feasible for the joint probability of rainfall and ET0 in irrigation district. The two joint probability categories of different combination events between rainfall and ET0 could be qualified by the application of the model. |
| Key words: Copula function; rainfall; reference crop evapotranspiration; risk model of water resources shortage |
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