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| DOI： |
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| Assessment and Forecast on Ecological Footprint of Water Resources in Chongqing Under Coordinating Urban and Rural Background |
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GUO Xiaona , SU Weici, YANG Zhenhua, LI Qiang, PAN Zhenzhen
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College of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 400047, China; Institute of Mountain Resource, Guizhou Academy of Sciences, Guiyang 550001, China; Key Laboratory of Surficial Process and Environmental Remote Sensing of Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing, Chongqing 401331, China;Institute of Karst Research, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550001, China;College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
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| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the ecological foot of water in Chongqing under the background of urban and rural, the water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological carrying capacity in the period of 2000—2014 in Chongqing were analyzed according to the basic principle and calculation model of water resources ecological footprint. Then, the water resources ecological footprint per capita and ecological carrying capacity per capita in 2015—2018 of urban and rural areas were predicted by GRNN model. The results showed that the water resources ecological footprint increased from 9.32 million square hectometer to 14.35 million square hectometer in period of 2000—2014. The water resources carrying capacity was affected by precipitation, so the overall fluctuation was larger. Water ecological pressure index was between 0.115 6~0.235 9, far less than 1, which indicated that the space of water resources development and utilization was large. The water resources ecological footprint and water resources ecological carrying capacity between urban and rural were different, that was to say that the total water ecological footprint in rural areas was more than that in city, but the water footprint per capita was less than that in city. The total water resources carrying capacity and water resources carrying per capita in rural area were more than that in city. The water ecological pressure indexes of urban and rural were both less than 1, but the water ecological pressure index of urban was higher than that in rural area, which indicated that the present development and utilization degree of water resources in urban was high, but the pressure of development on water resources in urban was also great. It was predicted that the water ecological footprints per capita of urban and rural areas in Chongqing from 2015 to 2018 were on the rise. The water ecological footprint per capita in urban increased from 0.385 74 square hectometer to 0.409 62 square hectometer, increasing by 7%. The water ecological footprint per capita in rural increased from 0.276 5 square hectometer to 0.336 57 square hectometer, increasing by 22%. The water resources carrying capacity per capita in urban and rural areas were relatively stable in a certain range, so the growth of water ecological footprint would threaten the sustainable utilization of water resources. Based on the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in Chongqing, the industrial structures, transform the development pattern and balance urban and rural layout should be optimized to promote the sustainable development of social economy in Chongqing. |
| Key words: urban and rural harmonious; predict; water resources carrying capacity; water ecological footprint ; GRNN prediction model |
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