| 引用本文: | 李凤丽,曲士松,王维平,等.1997—2012年山东省虚拟水贸易变化及典型区生态环境响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(2):123-128. |
| LI Fengli,QU Shisong,WANG Weiping,et al.1997—2012年山东省虚拟水贸易变化及典型区生态环境响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2018,37(2):123-128. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】解决山东省水资源短缺问题。【方法】根据投入产出模型的横向经济平衡公式，推导出隐含的水量平衡公式，利用1997、2002、2007和2012年的山东省投入产出表，将调入调出贸易状况和虚拟水贸易联系在一起，分析了1997—2012年虚拟水的变化趋势。【结果】1997年和2002年山东省向省外输出虚拟水，而2007年和2012年则向省内输入虚拟水。1997—2012年山东省虚拟水量的变化趋势在一定意义上符合环境库兹涅茨曲线的变化规律，山东省的虚拟水量由净输出向净输入的转化，可以看成经济市场对生态环境的一种修复。另外，以寿光市为例，每年用于蔬菜贸易调出的虚拟水量大约占据当地年平均地下水补给量的73%，已经造成了严重的咸水入侵。南水北调东线工程山东段全部工程建成后新增34.52亿m3长江水，但由于水价高等因素，并不会对农业用水和虚拟水贸易产生太大影响。【结论】因此，南水北调工程建成后，山东省主要漏斗区更应该加大恢复水生态环境，将一部分水用于来代替原来超采的地下水，并且主要河流的蓄水工程应归还过去挤占的生态水。 |
| 关键词: 虚拟水； 投入产出； 地下水超采； 生态环境 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0031 |
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| Changes of Virtual Water Trade of Shandong Province in 1997—2012 and the Ecological Environment Response of Typical Areas |
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LI Fengli, QU Shisong, WANG Weiping, ZHANG Zhengxian
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School of Resources and Environment, University of Jinan/Shandong Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Ground Numerical Simulation and Contamination Control, Jinan 250022, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Solve the problem of water shortage in Shandong province. 【Method】According to the formula of water balance deduced by the lateral economic balance formula in the input-output table of Shandong province, using Shandong province input-output table of 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012, the trade situation of Shandong province and the virtual water trade were linked up to analyze the change trend of virtual water over 1997—2012. 【Result】 That Shandong province exported virtual water in 1997 and 2002 but entered in 2007 and 2012. In a certain sense, the tendency was in line with the changing of environmental Kuznets curve, and the transform could be considered as a kind of repair to the ecological environment. Aiming at the situation of over-using underground water in Shouguang city, we analyzed the influence of bring up a lot of vegetable every year on the water ecological environment, and drew the conclusion that the quantity of water hidden under the vegetables trade every year occupied 73% of the average annual groundwater resources in local, which caused serous saline water intrusion. Although the east of the south-north water diversion project in Shandong province provided 3.45 billion m3 water after the completion of three phases of the project, there would not too much influence on agriculture and virtual water trade due to the over-high water price. 【Conclusion】We can conclude that the 3.45 billion m3 of water supply should be used in taking the place of the underground water to recover the water ecological environment, and the water storage of main stream should return the ecological water that was squeezed in the past. |
| Key words: virtual water; input-output; over-using of the underground water; ecological environment |
