| 引用本文: | 金菊良,郭 涵,李 征,等.基于水资源承载力动态评价的五元引力减法集对势方法[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(6):1-7. |
| JIN Juliang,GUO Han,LI Zheng,et al.基于水资源承载力动态评价的五元引力减法集对势方法[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(6):1-7. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】动态评价区域水资源承载状态及变化趋势，识别、诊断水资源承载力脆弱性子系统和指标。【方法】综合考虑五元联系数分量的物理意义及对所论集对系统态势影响程度的差异性，借鉴万有引力和阻尼的思想，构建了基于联系数的五元引力减法集对势。将五元引力减法集对势应用于四川省、黑龙江省水资源承载力动态评价和变化趋势分析中，并与现有的五元减法集对势进行对比分析。【结果】四川省水资源承载力总体态势向好发展，评价指标体系中各子系统对四川省水资源承载力的影响程度从大到小排序为：生态环境子系统>社会经济子系统>水资源子系统，其中连续处于反势、偏反势的生态环境子系统是脆弱性子系统，相关指标是需要密切关注和调控的；黑龙江省水资源承载状况整体较好，可以支撑承载客体，其中指标“降水量”“第三产业占比”处于反势，“产水能力”“人口密度”“第一产业占比”处于偏反势，是需要调控的指标，五元引力减法集对势判别的系统集对势值和态势与五元减法集对势计算结果基本一致，且在诊断、识别脆弱性子系统和指标上更为敏感、有效。【结论】所构建的五元引力减法集对势的计算结果与实际物理意义更为符合，且计算简单、解释性强，为多等级集对系统动态分析评价提供了一种新的集对势方法。 |
| 关键词: 水资源承载力；趋势分析；联系数；五元引力减法集对势；四川省；黑龙江省 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2020501 |
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| Evaluating the Dynamic Carrying Capacity of Water Resources Using the Five-variable Gravitation Subtraction Set Pair Potential Method |
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JIN Juliang, GUO Han, LI Zheng, ZHOU Rongxing, CUI Yi, NING Shaowei, WU Chengguo
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1.School of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009 China; 2. Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009 China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background and Objective】Carrying capacity of water resources is an important parameter to measure sustainability in regional water resources use, and objectively evaluating its variation and vulnerability can improve water resources management. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the dynamic carrying capacity of regional water resource, identify and diagnose its vulnerability. 【Method】Considering significance of the components of five-variable connection numbers and the difference in influence degree of the set on the system situation, and referring to the universal gravitation and damping, a five-variable gravitation subtraction set pair potential model based on the connection numbers was constructed. The model was then applied to evaluate the dynamic water resources carrying capacity in Sichuan and Heilongjiang provinces, and the results were compared with the existing five-variable subtractive set pair potential. 【Result】Overall, the bearing capacity of water resources in Sichuan province has seen improvement good. Based on the impact of the subsystems, their evaluation index was ranked in the order of ecological environment > social economic> water resource. Subsystems that were persistently potential or partial against-potential are vulnerable, and vigilance over them is thus required. In general, water bearing capacity in Heilongjiang is good, in which “rain” “service industry” are potential of “water production capacity”, while “population density”, “primary industry” are inverse potential. The five-variable gravity subtraction set of potential discrimination system set pair potential value and situational and five-variable subtraction set pair potential calculation results are basically identical, and on the diagnosis, identify vulnerability subsystem and index is more sensitive and effective.【Conclusion】Analysis of water resources carrying capacity evaluation, five-variable gravity subtraction sets for system development and diagnosis, identify the potential vulnerability subsystem and the index of the rationality and applicability of the constructed gravity subtraction of set pair potential of five-variable more conform to the calculation results and the actual physical meaning, and simple calculation, strong explanatory. A new set-to-potential method is provided for analyzing dynamically and evaluating the multi-level set pair system. |
| Key words: water resources carrying capacity; trend analysis; connection number; five-variable gravitation subtraction set pair potential; Sichuan Province; Heilongjiang Province |
