| 引用本文: | 张 月,邓可楠,高雅文,等.利用累积湿润指数评估湖北棉花生育期内旱涝灾害特征[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(9):57-65. |
| ZHANG Yue,DENG Kenan,GAO Yawen,et al.利用累积湿润指数评估湖北棉花生育期内旱涝灾害特征[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(9):57-65. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示湖北省棉花生育期内旱涝灾害特征，为棉田旱涝灾害防控工作提供依据。【方法】基于湖北省1961―2019年26个典型气象站点逐日气象资料计算了棉花生育期内旬累积湿润指数，以此分析棉花各生育期内旱涝变化特征，并揭示各生育期内旱涝强度与棉花气象产量的关联性。【结果】湖北省平均涝渍强度除棉花蕾期外，苗期、花铃期和吐絮期均呈下降趋势，平均干旱强度在除吐絮期外的其余生育期均呈下降趋势。平均涝渍强度在1965年苗期发生显著（p<0.05）增强，在1965年和1985年吐絮期分别发生显著增强和减弱；平均干旱强度在1975年吐絮期发生1次显著的降低。湖北棉花旱涝灾害以涝为主，干旱次数较少且强度较低。棉花易在苗期和蕾期受涝，湖北省平均涝渍频率分别为58.42%和48.98%；易在花铃期和吐絮期受旱，湖北省平均干旱频率分别为10.59%和11.00%。涝渍频率整体呈西南部最高的特征，干旱频率整体呈现中北部高、西南部低的特征。棉花在花铃期最易因涝减产，且仅在该时期内气象产量与涝渍强度极显著（p<0.01）相关；此外，涝害的减产作用大于干旱。荆门市、孝感市和黄石市蕾期为因涝减产的高风险地区/时段；黄冈市花铃期为因旱减产的高风险地区/时段。【结论】湖北省棉田旱涝防治工作以除涝为主，尤其需注意在蕾期和花铃期内及时灌溉和排水；各地区的旱涝防治工作因旱涝形式和发生时期而异。 |
| 关键词: 累积湿润指数；棉花；干旱；涝渍；气象产量；湖北省 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2021057 |
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| Using Accumulative Humidity Index to Estimate Drought and Flooding Hazards in Cotton Growth Season in Hubei Province |
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ZHANG Yue, DENG Kenan, GAO Yawen, QIAN Long, CHEN Cheng, HUANG Taoxing
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(1. School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
2. School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
3. Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, China;
4. Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Power China, Hangzhou 311122, China)
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Drought and flooding are two natural hazards affecting agricultural production, and understanding the statistics in their occurrences is critical to safeguarding crop growth. Taking cotton in Hubei province as an example, this paper presents a new method to analyze the drought and flooding characteristics during its growth season. 【Method】Ten-day accumulative humidity index was first calculated based on daily meteorological data measured from 1961 to 2019 from 26 meteorological stations across Hubei province; we then analyzed the variation in drought and flooding events occurring at seedling, budding, flowering and boll-forming stages of the cotton during this period. These data were used to analyze the relationship between drought-flooding intensity and the associated climatic cotton yield.【Result】The intensity of flooding occurring at all but the budding stage had been in decline from 1961 to 2019, and the intensity of drought occurring at all but boll-opening stage had also been in decrease during this period. There were three sharp changes in flooding intensity at significant level (p<0.05): Two sharp increases at the seedling and boll-opening stage in 1965, and one sharp decrease at boll-opening stage in 1985. In contrast, there was only one sharp change in drought intensity, happening at the boll-opening stage in 1975. Flooding was identified as the dominant hazard for cotton production in Hubei province, with its frequency and severity both being more than that of drought. Among all four growing stages, the seedling and budding stages were more prone to flooding, with their associated flooding frequency being 58.42% and 48.98% respectively. In contrast, the cotton at flowering and boll-forming stage and the boll-opening stage was susceptible to drought, with the average drought frequency being 10.59% and 11.00% respectively. Spatially, the southwest of the province was more susceptible to flooding, while the northern and central parts of the province were more prone to drought. Regression analysis revealed that flooding was more likely to hit during the flowering and boll-forming stages, where the flood indices were significantly associated with climate cotton yield (p<0.01) and the detrimental impact of flooding on climatic cotton yield was much greater than that of drought. In particular, flooding was more likely to occur at the budding stage, which could reduce cotton yield in Jingmen, Xiaogan and Huangshi. In contrast, drought was more likely to hit at the boll-opening stage and reduced cotton yield in Huanggang. 【Conclusion】Overall, cotton in Hubei province is prone to flooding and improving drainage system is hence important to ensure its production, especially during budding-flowering and boll-forming stage. Drought also occurs in some regions and agronomic management of cotton growth should consider variation of both flooding and drought across the province. |
| Key words: accumulative humidity index; cotton; drought; waterlogging; climatic yield; Hubei province |
