引用本文: | 韩聪慧,席小康,朱永华.气候变化和人类活动对西拉木伦河径流的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(9):134-140. |
| HAN Conghui,,XI Xiaokang,ZHU Yonghua.气候变化和人类活动对西拉木伦河径流的影响[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(9):134-140. |
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摘要: |
【目的】定量识别气候变化和人类活动对西拉木伦河流域径流变化的影响程度。【方法】以西拉木伦河流域为研究对象,基于该流域1958―2015年气象水文资料,采用皮尔逊相关分析、逐步多元回归分析、双累积曲线、累积距平、SCRCQ方法,揭示引起流域径流变化的主导因素,量化气候变化与人类活动对流域径流的影响程度。【结果】年径流的变化最主要受到夏季降水的影响,其次是夏季平均气温。T1(1972―1981年)、T2(1982―1997年)、T3(1998―2015年)阶段降水对径流变化的影响程度分别为0.26%、17.51%、26.13%;人类活动对径流变化的影响程度分别为99.74%、82.49%、73.88%;各阶段径流的变化主要是由人类活动导致,但随着时间推移,降水对径流的影响作用增强,人类活动减弱。 |
关键词: 西拉木伦河;流域;气候变化;人类活动;径流 |
DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2020507 |
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The Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Runoff of Xilamulun River |
HAN Conghui, XI Xiaokang*, ZHU Yonghua
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(1.Chifeng Hydrology Survey Bureau, Chifeng 024000, China;
2. Shaanxi Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Center, Xi’an 710068, China;
3.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Yan’an University, Yan’an 716000, China)
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Abstract: |
【Background and objective】The average global temperature has risen by 0.74 ℃ over the last century, which has alerted the global hydrological cycle with extreme weather events occurring more frequently. This, together with anthropogenic activities, has affected the runoffs of most catchments and led to soil degradation and deterioration. Understanding the change in runoff of a river in response to climate change and anthropogenic activity is hence critical to mitigating their detrimental impacts. Taking Xilamulun River basin as an example, this paper is to identify the environmental factors underlying its runoff change.【Method】The analysis was based on meteorological and hydrological data measured from 1958 to 2015 across the basin. The factors that affected the runoff changes in the basin were calculated using Pearson correlation analysis, stepwise multiple regression, double cumulative curve, cumulative anomaly and SCRCQ method.【Result】Both runoff and precipitation in the basin had been in decline at decadal rates of 4 mm/10 a and 8.24 mm/10 a respectively, while the annual average temperature has been rising at an average decadal rate of 0.32 ℃/10 a. Annual average temperature, average summer temperature, average autumn temperature and annual runoff were all closely correlated. The annual runoff was affected by rainfall in summer the most, followed by the average temperature in summer. There was a correlation between precipitation and runoff after 1971, and the significance of the correlation endured reflection changes in 1972, 1982, and 1998, respectively. The contribution of the precipitation to runoff has been in decline and was 0.26%, 17.51% and 26.13%, respectively, in 1972—1981, 1982—1997, and 1998—2015, while during the same periods the associated contribution of human activities to the runoff changes was 99.74%, 82.49% and 73.88% respectively. 【Conclusion】Anthropogenic activities affected the runoff change in Xilamulun river the most from 1985 to 2015, but its influence has been waning compared to that of climate change. |
Key words: Xilamulun river basin; climate change; human activities; runoff |