| 引用本文: | 王柳,张秋玲,张跃峰, 等.我国农田水利工程建设抵御水旱灾害效果评估[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(11):129-136. |
| WANG Liu,ZHANG Qiuling,ZHANG Yuefeng, et al.我国农田水利工程建设抵御水旱灾害效果评估[J].灌溉排水学报,2021,(11):129-136. |
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| 摘要: |
| ：2011年中央一号文件提出“大兴农田水利建设”，之后伴随着高标准农田建设的发展，农田水利工程建设进入快速发展阶段，年均投资超过800亿元。【目的】评估我国过去农田水利工程建设减轻水旱灾害的效果。【方法】以2011年为时间节点，将各省级行政区降水量和水、旱灾受灾率和成灾率数据分成2组，建立模型，考察2个时段内水、旱灾受灾率随降水量的变化，分析2个时段水旱灾受灾率和成灾率的差异显著性。【结果】1994—2010年水灾受灾率随降水量的增加呈极显著增加趋势，而2011—2018年水灾受灾率则与降水量无显著关系，说明大力建设农田水利工程的减灾效果；1994—2010年和2011—2018年旱灾受灾率随降水量的增加显著降低，但2011—2018年比1994—2010年旱灾受灾率受降雨量影响的程度减小。2011—2018年旱灾受灾率和成灾率比1994—2010年分别降低了5.14~22.52百分点和2.21~16.79百分点，水灾受灾率和成灾率则分别降低了3.26~8.00百分点和1.95~4.54百分点。结合各省区的多年平均降水量数据分析表明，农田水利工程建设对于大多数干旱、半干旱和半湿润地区，如河北、山西、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、西藏、甘肃、青海和新疆的抗旱效果较明显；对于湿润地区，如福建、江西、湖北和湖南则抗涝效果较明显；在某些半湿润地区，如山东、河南和某些湿润地区，如江苏、广东、重庆兼具抗旱和抗涝效果。【结论】统计意义上，农田水利工程建设抗旱效果显著高于抗涝效果；旱灾受灾率和成灾率比水灾的受灾率和成灾率分别降低很多。该研究可为未来农田水利设施建设区域规划提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 农田水利工程；高标准农田；水/旱灾；抗灾能力；效果评估 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2021059 |
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| Evaluating the Improved Ability of Irrigation Water Conservancy Engineering Projects Since 2011 in Mitigating Flood and Drought in China |
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WANG Liu, ZHANG Qiuling, ZHANG Yuefeng, et al
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1. Academy of Agricultural Planning and Engineering, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China;
2. Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, Beijing 100125, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background and objective】The No.1 central document in 2011 proposed to improve farmland water conservancy construction. Since then, constructing well-facilitated farmland water projects has developed rapidly with an average of annual investment more than 80 billion Yuan. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the efficacy of these projects in mitigating floods and droughts across the country.【Method】We divided precipitation, standard ratio of areas affected by flood and drought to total sowing areas in each province into 1994—2010 group and 2011—2018 group. A linear model was used to fit the changes in flood and drought ratio in response to precipitations in the two periods. The one-way ANOVA analysis was used to test significant difference in precipitation, difference in standard ratio of areas affected by flood and drought to the total sowing areas, between the two groups.【Result】The standard ratio of flood-affected areas to the total sowing areas increased significantly with precipitation from 1994 to 2010, indicating a positive impact of precipitation on floods. Since 2011, however, the floods did not show a significant relationship with precipitation, implying the efficacy of the projects newly constructed or revamped. The standard ratio of the drought-affected areas to the total sowing areas decreased significantly with the increase in precipitation from 1994 to 2018, but the slope of the linear increase for 2011 to 2018 was smaller than that for 1994 to 2010, implying the effectiveness of the newly constructed projects in mitigating the occurrence of drought. Compared to those in 1994—2010, the ratios of drought-areas and drought-damaged areas to the total sowing areas decreased by 5.14~22.52 percentage points and 2.21~16.79 percentage points, respectively, in 2011—2018, while the ratio of flood-areas and flood-damaged areas to the total sowing areas decreased by 3.26~8.00 percentage points and 1.95~4.54 percentage points, respectively, in the same period. The newly constructed or revamped projects were most effective in mitigating drought in the arid, semi-arid and semi-humid regions in provinces including Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Tibet, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang. For provinces in humid regions, including Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan, they were more effective in alleviating floods. For those in semi-humid regions, such as Shandong and Henan, and in humid regions such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Chongqing, they were effective in ameliorating both drought and flood.【Conclusion】The effectiveness of the newly constructed and revamped water engineering projects since 2011 varied with regions. On average, they are more effective in relieving droughts than floods. Our analysis provides valuable information for guiding future farmland water conservancy engineering construction. |
| Key words: farmland water conservancy engineering; well-facilitated farmland; flood and drought; mitigation; evaluation |
