| 引用本文: | 吴子晗,章孙逊,张 帆,等.未来气候情景下黑河中游灌溉缺水风险评估[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(1):97-103. |
| WU Zihan,ZHANG Sunxun,ZHANG Fan,et al.未来气候情景下黑河中游灌溉缺水风险评估[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(1):97-103. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】评估未来气候情景下典型干旱区农业缺水风险，为研究区及类似区域未来灌溉水资源管理与农业可持续发展提供决策支持。【方法】对第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）中的3种共享社会经济路径情景（SSP126、SSP245和SSP585）进行降尺度处理以获取未来气象情景数据，结合BP神经网络、Hargreaves模型与作物系数法，预测黑河中游灌溉可用地表水与作物需水量的未来变化。应用Copula模型模拟灌溉供需水量的联合分布，分析水文情景组合概率，评估未来气候模式下的缺水风险。【结果】2024—2100年，SSP126、SSP245、SSP585情景下年平均灌溉需水量较2023年分别增长10.21%、11.73%、14.59%，年平均增长率分别为0.17%、0.16%、0.18%。各情景间最大与最小年径流量比值分别为1.21、1.27、1.34。SSP126情景下丰-枯与丰-丰概率增加，SSP245情景下丰-枯与平-平概率最高，SSP585情景下丰-枯概率降低，平-平概率上升。SSP126情景下大多数年份缺少风险率低于0.6，SSP245情景下部分年份低于0.6，而SSP585情景下所有年份缺水风险率均超过0.6。【结论】未来黑河上游径流量和中游作物灌溉需水量在不同SSP情景下均呈上升趋势。SSP126、SSP245、SSP585情景下缺水风险持续降低，其中SSP585情景下的缺水风险最高，SSP245情景次之，SSP126情景最低。 |
| 关键词: 未来气候变化；Copula函数模型；供需水组合概率；灌溉缺水风险；黑河中游 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2024260 |
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| Assessing irrigation water shortage in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin under future climate scenarios |
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WU Zihan, ZHANG Sunxun, ZHANG Fan, ZHANG Xinyu, LIU Meixian
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1. School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China; 3. Hangjin Banner Water Conservancy Development Center, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, Ordos 017400, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events such as flooding and drought. This paper evaluates the risk of agricultural water shortage in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin under different climate change scenarios.【Method】Using the CMIP6 SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), downscaled meteorological data were integrated with the BP neural network, the Hargreaves model, and crop coefficients to predict changes in irrigation water availability and demand in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. Copula functions were applied to model the joint distribution of water supply and demand and assess the risk of water scarcity.【Result】Calculations for the period from 2024 to 2100 show that average annual irrigation demand is expected to increase by 10.21%, 11.73%, and 14.59% under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, respectively. The associated average annual growth rates will be 0.17%, 0.16%, and 0.18%, with the maximum-to-minimum annual runoff volume ratio being 1.21, 1.27, and 1.34, respectively. SSP126 will see an increased probability of wet-dry and wet-wet alternation, while SSP245 will exhibit the highest probability of wet-dry and normal-normal alternation. SSP585 will experience a decrease in the probability of wet-dry alternation and an increase in the probability of normal-normal alternation. Water scarcity risk is below 0.6 under the SSP126 scenario, below 0.6 in some years under SSP245, and consistently above 0.6 under the SSP585 scenario.【Conclusion】Runoff in the upstream regions and irrigation demands in the midstream regions of the Heihe River basin are both expected to increase under all SSP scenarios. Water scarcity risks are projected to decrease under the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, while SSP585 scenarios presents the highest water scarcity risk and SSP126 presents the lowest. These findings can inform the development of strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on water scarcity in the catchment. |
| Key words: future climate change; Copula function model; probability of water supply and demand combination; irrigation water shortage risk; middle reaches of Heihe River |
