| 引用本文: | 徐 凯,岳耀先,雷 波,等.基于系统动力学模型的干旱区农业节水潜力计算[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(1):104-112. |
| XU Kai,YUE Yaoxian,LEI Bo,et al.基于系统动力学模型的干旱区农业节水潜力计算[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(1):104-112. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】利用系统动力学方法评估干旱区农业节水潜力。【方法】考虑荒漠化、水土流失等因素对节水的影响，选取农业用水量、耕地灌溉面积、灌溉水有效利用系数、粮经比、水土保持率等30个要素，借助Vensim PLE软件绘制系统动力学流图，构建了干旱区农业节水潜力计算模型，以内蒙古地区（不含东四盟市）为例，对短期规划年（2035年）和长期规划年（2050年）的区域农业节水潜力进行预测。【结果】研究区短期规划年的节水潜力为25.18亿m3，长期规划年的节水潜力为29.58亿m3，其中巴彦淖尔市的节水潜力最大，乌海市最小。在节水潜力组成中，工程节水占比最大，约为52.83%，技术节水占比最小，约为16.91%，工程节水占比呈逐年增长趋势。【结论】本研究将系统动力学运用到农业节水潜力估算当中，可为干旱区制定农业节水发展政策提供技术支撑。 |
| 关键词: 系统动力学；农业节水潜力；干旱区；Vensim模型 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2024261 |
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| Calculating agricultural water-saving potential in arid areas using system dynamic model |
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XU Kai, YUE Yaoxian, LEI Bo, YANG Kaijing, XU Lirong,
JIN Hanlin, BAI Minghao, LIU Huibo, GUO Yu
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1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China;
2. School of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Ji’nan, Ji’nan 250022, China;
3. Sichuan Dujiangyan Water Conservancy Development, Chengdu 611800, China;
4. School of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Agriculture is the main water consumer in many countries and regions, and improving agricultural water use efficiency is critical to sustainable development in these regions. A prerequisite for this is to understand the potential for water saving in the agricultural sector. This paper presents a method to evaluate agricultural water-saving potential in arid regions.【Method】The method considered the influence of desertification, soil erosion, and other environmental factors on water conservation. A total of 30 key factors, including agricultural water consumption, irrigated land area, irrigation water use efficiency, grain-to-economy ratio, and soil and water conservation rate, were considered in the evaluation. Using the Vensim PLE software, a system dynamic flow diagram model was developed to calculate agricultural water-saving potential. The model was applied to Inner Mongolia (excluding Dongsimeng City) to evaluate its agricultural water-saving potential at regional scales, in both the short term (up to 2035) and the long term (up to 2050).【Result】① Agricultural water-saving potential in Inner Mongolia was estimated to be 2.518 billion m3 in the short term (up to 2035) and 2.958 billion m3 in the long term (up to 2050). Among all areas in the province, Bayannur had the highest water-saving potential, while Wuhai had the least. ② Engineering water-saving projects contributed the most to the water-saving potential (approximately 52.83%), while technical water-saving measures contributed the least (approximately 16.91%). The contribution of engineering water-saving projects to water savings is expected to increase over time.【Conclusion】Our results demonstrate that the system dynamic model can be used to estimate agricultural water-saving potential. The results obtained using this model are reliable and provide valuable technical support for formulating agricultural water-saving policies in arid regions. |
| Key words: system dynamics; agricultural water-saving potential; arid zone; Vensim model |
