| 引用本文: | 秦雅琴,吴 楠,吴梦洋,等.基于蓝水、绿水足迹和PLS-SEM模型的长江流域
粮食生产用水解析及驱动力分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(2):1-10. |
| QIN Yaqin,WU Nan,WU Mengyang,et al.基于蓝水、绿水足迹和PLS-SEM模型的长江流域
粮食生产用水解析及驱动力分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(2):1-10. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】明晰长江流域粮食作物生产过程中水资源消耗量及类型，揭示区域粮食水足迹的时空演变趋势，探讨作物水足迹的驱动机制。【方法】以长江流域为研究区域，采用作物需水量法量化了2000—2020年粮食作物对区域水资源的占用及其时空特征，并借助路径分析探讨了影响单位面积上蓝水、绿水足迹的驱动因素。【结果】①长江流域粮食水足迹的年均值为205.25×109 m3，绿水足迹占比为66%；②由于种植规模差异，长江流域上、中、下游地区分别贡献了整个流域水足迹的36.5%、46.8%、16.7%。此外，中游和下游地区对绿水的依赖度增加；③气象因素对绿水足迹密度起正面影响作用，对蓝水足迹密度则起负面作用，社会发展和经济水平对蓝水足迹密度作用显著。【结论】综上可知，在长江流域中游地区，粮食作物生产对灌溉用水的需求很大，未来中游地区将会面临用于粮食生产水资源短缺的压力，特别是河南、湖北、湖南、江西等省份，建议在这些地区加大对农业基础设施的投资，如灌溉系统建设和水管理技术的应用。在长期受到水资源短缺和污染威胁的甘肃、青海、河南等省份，采用薄膜覆盖、雨水收集和蓄存等技术，有助于提高绿水利用率从而缓解地区水资源压力。 |
| 关键词: 作物；蓝水足迹；绿水足迹；路径分析；流域 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2024379 |
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| Using water footprints and PLS-SEM model to analyze water utilization and its determinants for food production in the Yangtze River Basin |
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QIN Yaqin, WU Nan, WU Mengyang, ZHANG Jinpeng, CAO Xinchun
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1. Hohai University, College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Nanjing 210098, China;
2. Henan Province Water Conservancy Technology Application Center, Zhengzhou 450003, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Food production is the primary consumer of water resources in many countries. At the catchment and basin scale, understanding the spatiotemporal variation of food production and the underlying determinants is crucial for improving water resource use efficiency and promoting sustainable development. We propose a new method in this paper to analyze this issue.【Method】Our study focuses on the Yangtze River Basin. The water used for food production and its spatiotemporal variation from 2000 to 2020 in the basin were calculated based on crop water demand. Path analysis was used to elucidate the underlying determinants affecting the blue and green water footprint per unit area.【Result】① The annual average grain water footprint in the basin from 2000 to 2020 was 205.25×109 m3, with the green water footprint accounting for 66%. ② Due to differences in cultivation scales, the upper, middle, and lower reaches contributed 36.5%, 46.8%, and 16.7%, respectively, to the total grain water footprint of the basin. Additionally, the grain water footprints in the middle and lower reaches have increasingly relied on green water. ③ Meteorological factors positively influenced the density of the green water footprint and negatively affected the density of the blue water footprint. Social development and economic factors significantly impacted the density of the blue water footprint. 【Conclusion】 The middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, where irrigation demand for grain crop production is high, are likely to face growing pressure due to land and water resource shortages. This challenge is particularly acute in Henan, Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi provinces, where investments in agricultural infrastructure, such as irrigation systems and advanced water management technologies, are essential. In Gansu, Qinghai, and Henan provinces, where water scarcity and pollution persist, adopting technologies such as soil mulching, rainwater harvesting and water storage can enhance green water utilization and alleviate regional water resource pressures. |
| Key words: crops; blue water footprint; green water footprint; path analysis; basin |
