| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探讨宁夏扬黄灌区在气候变化和人类活动影响下的植被净初级生产力（NPP）的时空变化规律及其影响因素以及NPP、社会经济发展与灌溉工程三者之间的相互影响机制。【方法】基于CASA模型、情景模拟、结构方程模型及向量自回归模型，对1983—2021年研究区NPP的时空变化进行了深入探讨，量化了气候变化和人类活动对NPP的相对贡献，并分析了不同外部因素对NPP的影响，同时定性和定量研究了NPP、灌溉工程及社会经济三者之间的相互作用。【结果】①1983—2021年间，研究区NPP显著增加，增长为10.95 g/（m2·a）。人类活动是驱动研究区NPP变化的主导因素，占整个研究区的91.58%。人类活动对NPP的相对贡献为70.27%，而气候变化的相对贡献为29.73%。②降水量、太阳短波辐射、实际蒸散发、灌溉用水量是影响气候变化并驱动NPP变化的关键因素；由人类活动驱动的NPP变化主要受灌溉用水量影响，气温和土壤湿度次之，降水、实际蒸散发和太阳短波辐射等其他因素影响较小。③社会经济发展对NPP具有显著的正面作用。扬黄灌溉工程对研究区的社会经济发展有显著正面作用，并通过促进社会经济发展间接地影响NPP。【结论】宁夏扬黄灌区NPP存在明显的时空差异，主要受人类活动和水热条件影响。宁夏扬黄灌溉工程对社会经济发展和生态环境有着重要作用。 |
| 关键词: 植被净初级生产力；结构方程模型；向量自回归模型；黄河扬水灌溉 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2024388 |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Quantitative assessment of influencing factors and socio-economic impacts of net primary productivity in the Yellow River Water-pumping Irrigation Project Areas, Ningxia |
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YANG Zhao, FENG Kepeng, FENG Xiong
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1. School of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China;
2. Engineering Technology Research Center of Water-saving Irrigation and Water Resources Regulation in Ningxia,
Yinchuan 750021, China; 3. Engineering Research Center for Efficient Utilization of Water Resources in Modern Agriculture in
Arid Regions, Ministry of Education, Yinchuan 750021, China; 4. Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of
Hydrology and Smart Water Conservancy in Arid Irrigation Areas, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a key indicator of ecosystem carbon cycle. It is influenced by both climate change and human activities. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of NPP from 1983 to 2021 in the Yellow River Water-pumping Irrigation Areas of Ningxia, distinguishes the contributions of climate change from human activities to NPP.【Method】Using the CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model, scenario simulations, structural equation model (SEM), and a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we assessed the NPP trends, identified key influencing factors, and explored the interactions between NPP, socio-economic factors and irrigation infrastructures.【Result】① NPP in the region increased significantly during the study period, with an average annual growth rate of 10.95 g/(m2·a). Human activities were the dominant influencing factor, contributing 70.27% to the NPP changes, compared to 29.73% from climate changes. ② Among climate-related factors, precipitation, solar radiation, evapotranspiration and irrigation water most strongly influenced NPP. In human factors, irrigation water and soil moisture were the key drivers. ③ Socio-economic development positively influenced NPP, while the irrigation projects significantly boosted socio-economic progresses, indirectly enhancing NPP. 【Conclusion】 NPP in the study areas shows noticeably spatiotemporal variation, driven mainly by human activities and water-temperature conditions. The Yellow River Water-pumping Irrigation Project plays a vital role in supporting both ecological health and economic development in these areas. |
| Key words: net primary productivity; structural equation model; vector autoregression model; Yellow River water- pumping irrigation |
