| 引用本文: | 杨妮妮,牛最荣,张鹏举,等.党河上游水沙变化特征及归因分析研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(8):125-135. |
| YANG Nini,NIU Zuirong,ZHANG Pengju,et al.党河上游水沙变化特征及归因分析研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(8):125-135. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】水沙特征及归因分析研究是水土资源管理和流域治理的重要内容。党河作为疏勒河流域的主要水系之一，准确掌握其水沙变化机制对河西内陆河流域水资源管理具有重要意义。【方法】基于党河上游1972—2022年的降水、气温、径流和输沙等数据，采用Mann-Kendall检验法、累积距平法及双累积曲线法等方法分析流域水沙变化特征，定量确定气候及人类活动对流域水沙变化的贡献率。【结果】①党河上游径流和输沙量年内分配趋于不均匀发展，平均径流和输沙量月度主要集中在6—8月，季节分配主要集中在春夏两季。②1972—2022年径流呈显著增加趋势，且Hurst指数高于0.5，未来仍保持上升趋势，输沙量呈不显著减少趋势；径流量突变点为1986年，输沙量突变点为2007年；径流量的主周期为12、5、8 a和22 a，输沙量的主周期为30、14、8 a和5 a；③归因分析发现与基准期相比，降水在变化期I的影响大于变化期II。在变化期II，降水对径流量及输沙量变化的贡献率分别为196.34%和65.96%，人类活动的贡献率分别为96.34%和34.04%。【结论】气温是导致径流量增加的主要因素，降水是输沙量变化的主要气候因素，人类活动对水沙关系起到正向影响作用。 |
| 关键词: 党河上游；水沙关系；年际变化；降水；归因分析 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025057 |
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| Analysis of runoff and sediment variability and its causes in the upper reach of the Dang River |
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YANG Nini, NIU Zuirong, ZHANG Pengju, JIA Ling
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1. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2. Water Resources Utilization Center of Shule River Basin, Gansu Province, Yumen 735211, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Understanding the variation in hydrological and sedimentary processes and the underlying mechanisms is essential for integrated watershed management, particularly in arid inland basins. As a major tributary of the Shule River, the Dang River plays a key role in water resource regulation in the Hexi Corridor. This study analyzes the long-term changes in runoff and sediment load in the upper reach of the Dang River and its underlying mechanisms. 【Method】The analysis was based on precipitation, runoff, temperature and sediment transport measured from 1972 to 2022. The variations in hydrological and sediment transport were examined using the Mann-Kendall trend test, the cumulative anomaly analysis, and the double mass curve method. A quantitative attribution analysis was used to assess the influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities.【Result】 ① Runoff and sediment transport showed strong seasonal variation, with their peaks occurring in July and August, primarily during spring and summer. ② Over the 50-year period, runoff displayed a significant increasing trend (Hurst index＞0.5), while sediment load exhibited a decreasing but statistically insignificant trend. Abrupt changes were identified in 1986 for runoff and 2007 for sediment. Runoff exhibited dominant cycles of 12, 5, 8, and 22 years, whereas sediment dynamics were governed by cycles of 30, 14, 8, and 5 years. ③ Attribution analysis revealed that precipitation had a stronger influence on hydrological changes during Transition Period I than during Transition Period II. In Period II, precipitation contributed 196.34% to runoff variation and 65.96% to sediment change, while human activities accounted for 96.34% and 34.04%, respectively, to these variations, mainly through water regulation measures.【Conclusion】 Rising temperatures have significantly contributed to increased runoff, while precipitation remains the dominant climatic driver of sediment variation. Human interventions, such as water regulation, have had a beneficial impact on improving water–sediment relationship in the basin. |
| Key words: upper reaches of the Danghe River, runoff sediment relationship, interannual variation, precipitation, attribution analysis |
