| 引用本文: | 王漪茹,孙栋元,王兴繁,等.渭河流域甘肃段径流演变特征及预测分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(8):114-124. |
| WANG Yiru,SUN Dongyuan,WANG Xingfan,et al.渭河流域甘肃段径流演变特征及预测分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(8):114-124. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示渭河流域甘肃段多时间尺度径流演变规律与未来变化趋势，为流域水资源高效管理与可持续利用决策提供科学依据。【方法】基于武山站和北道站1956—2022年67 a月实测径流资料，采用Mann-Kendall检验、R/S分析等多种统计方法，从年内、年际及季节3个尺度综合分析渭河流域甘肃段径流演变规律，并结合CNN-LSTM-Attention耦合模型预测未来径流变化趋势。【结果】1956—2022年渭河流域甘肃段径流量年内分配呈显著的季节性特征，主要集中在7—10月，年内分配不均但整体趋势渐趋均匀。流域年径流量及四季径流量均呈下降趋势，并于20世纪80年代发生显著突变，突变后平均径流量大幅下降。年径流量具有多时间特征尺度周期且丰枯差异大。预测结果显示，2023—2030年渭河流域甘肃段年径流量将继续呈下降趋势。【结论】在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下，渭河流域甘肃段径流特征复杂多变，水资源状况相对严峻。 |
| 关键词: 径流演变；径流预测；渭河甘肃段；CNN-LSTM-Attention |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2024425 |
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| Runoff variation across multiple time scales and their future changes in the Gansu Section of the Weihe River Basin |
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WANG Yiru, SUN Dongyuan, WANG Xingfan, NIU Zuirong, CUI Yanqiang, MA Yali, WU Lanzhen, SHU Heping
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College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The Gansu Section of the Weihe River Basin plays a critical role in regional water supply and ecological stability. This paper investigates the multi-time scale variations of runoff and their potential changes in the future, aiming to provide a basis for improving management and sustainable use of water resources in the basin.【Method】The analysis was based on monthly runoff data measured from 1956 to 2022 from the hydrological stations at Wushan and Beidao. The Mann-Kendall trend test, the rescaled range (R/S) analysis, along with other statistical methods, were used to analyze intra-annual, inter-annual, and seasonal runoff variations. The CNN-LSTM- Attention hybrid deep learning model was developed to predict future runoff changes.【Result】The annual runoff in the Gansu Section of the river basin showed pronounced seasonal variation, with the majority occurring from July to October. Although the annual runoff distribution was uneven, a gradual shift toward more uniformity was observed from 1956 to 2022. Both annual and seasonal runoff showed a declining trend from 1956 to 2022, with a significant abrupt change observed in the 1980s, after which runoff volumes dropped notably. Multi-scale analysis revealed alternating periods of high and low runoff. Model forecasts suggest that the runoff will continue to decline from 2023 to 2030.【Conclusion】Runoff variability in the Gansu Section of the Weihe River is driven by both climate change and human activities, imposing a challenging outlook for sustainable use of water resources in the region. |
| Key words: runoff evolution; runoff prediction; Gansu Section of Weihe river; CNN-LSTM-Attention |
