| 引用本文: | 颜雅琼,岳 元,庞 礴,等.气候变化背景下淮北地区冬小麦水分供需
演变特征及其关联性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(11):18-26. |
| YAN Yaqiong,YUE Yuan,PANG Bo,et al.气候变化背景下淮北地区冬小麦水分供需
演变特征及其关联性分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(11):18-26. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】明确淮北地区冬小麦各生育阶段水分供需差异及其关联性，优化农业用水管理。【方法】基于淮北地区61个气象站1970—2018年逐日观测气象数据和冬小麦生育期观测数据，结合经验模态分解（EMD）、交叉小波方法探究各生育阶段作物需水量（〖"ET" 〗_"c" ）和有效降水量（"P" _"e" ）的时空特征及关联性。【结果】EMD结果表明，生长季〖"ET" 〗_"c" 先减后增，"P" _"e" 略有增多；营养生长期〖"ET" 〗_"c" 呈“减-增-减”变化，"P" _"e" 先增后减；并进期二者显著减小；生殖生长期〖"ET" 〗_"c" 先减小后趋于平稳，"P" _"e" 呈“增-减-增”变化。营养生长期水分供需矛盾（〖"ET" 〗_"c" -"P" _"e" ）东南低西北高的空间格局，其他阶段总体呈北高南低的空间格局。营养生长和生殖生长期淮北地区供需矛盾多呈减小趋势，并进期呈增大趋势的范围较大且主要分布在淮北地区东南部、西部和南部。各生育阶段〖"ET" 〗_"c" 和"P" _"e" 在年际尺度上存在显著反向共振，但不具备全时域性。【结论】各生育阶段均存在水分供需矛盾，且受〖"ET" 〗_"c" 和"P" _"e" 年际变化影响显著。其中淮北地区东南部、西部和南部并进期供需矛盾将进一步增大，需合理增加灌溉量。 |
| 关键词: 淮北地区；冬小麦；有效降水量；作物需水量 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025175 |
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| Spatiotemporal changes in water supply and demand for winter wheat in northern Huai River Basin under climate change |
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YAN Yaqiong, YUE Yuan, PANG Bo, XU Yifei, SONG Liuxian, QIN Mengsheng, WANG Jingjing
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1. Suqian Meteorological Bureau, Suqian 223800, China; 2. Jilin Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Changchun 130062, China;
3. Jiangsu Provincial Climate Center, Nanjing 210000, China; 4. Yangzhou Meteorological Bureau, Yangzhou 225000, China;
5. Yancheng Teachers University, Yancheng 224000, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Winter wheat is a staple crop in central and northern China. Understanding the balance between water supply and demand for this crop is crucial for its sustainable production under climate change. This paper investigates the correlations between water supply and demand across different growth stages of winter wheat in the northern part of the Huai River basin.【Method】Using daily meteorological data measured from 61 weather stations across the region from 1970 to 2018 and measured phenological traits of winter wheat, we calculated the spatiotemporal variations and correlation of evapotranspiration (〖"ET" 〗_"c" ) and effective precipitation ("P" _"e" ) in each growth stage. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) was used to elucidate multi-scale trends, while the cross-wavelet transform was applied to identify correlations between ETc and Pe.【Result】EMD showed that during the growing stage, 〖"ET" 〗_"c" of the wheat decreased first followed by an increase, while "P" _"e" increased slightly. During the vegetative growth stage, 〖"ET" 〗_"c" decreased first, followed by an increase before decreasing again, while〖" P" 〗_"e" increased first followed by a decrease. Both ETc and Pe decreased significantly during the transition from vegetative stage to reproductive stage. In the reproductive stage, 〖"ET" 〗_"c" decreased asymptotically, while "P" _"e" increased first, followed by a decrease before increasing again. Spatially, the difference between water supply and demand (〖"ET" 〗_"c" 〖"-P" 〗_"e" ) in the vegetative growth stage was low in the southeast and high in the northwest of the region, while in other growth stages, it was high in the north and low in the south. The difference between water supply and demand during vegetative growth and reproductive growth period decreased. During the transition from vegetative growth and reproductive stage, the large difference between them was mainly in the southeast, west and south of the region. Cross-wavelet analysis indicated that interannually, ETc and Pe were negatively correlated.【Conclusion】Water supply and demand at different growth stages of winter wheat are imbalanced in the study region, primarily due to interannual variations in ETc and Pe. This imbalance is more pronounced in the southeastern, western and southern parts of the region. |
| Key words: Huaibei area; winter wheat; effective precipitation; evapotranspiration |
