| 引用本文: | 由宇军,席小康,张 璐.华北地区植被季节性变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(11):90-97. |
| YOU Yujun,XI Xiaokang,ZHANG Lu.华北地区植被季节性变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(11):90-97. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究华北地区植被季节性变化特征及其影响因素。【方法】基于归一化植被指数（NDVI）、夜间灯光指数、气象、土壤和地形多源遥感数据，采用趋势分析、Hurst指数和可解释机器学习方法，分析了历史与未来华北地区季节性NDVI时空演变特征，识别了NDVI变化的关键驱动因子。【结果】1982—2021年，不同季节NDVI呈显著增加趋势，夏季约60%的区域NDVI＞0.6，而冬季和春季植被覆盖度较低；华北地区不同季节NDVI变化趋势的空间分布差异明显，冬季和春季NDVI显著增加区域的面积占比最大，分别为97.70%和86.94%，而春季和夏季NDVI显著下降趋势的面积占比较大，分别为1.06%和2.22%；华北地区约82%的区域NDVI将呈下降趋势，非农田NDVI的持续增加面积比例高于农田，农田NDVI持续退化面积大于非农田，春季NDVI持续增长区域面积占比最大；农田与非农田NDVI动态变化的关键影响因素不同，农田NDVI主要受高程和潜在蒸散发影响，非农田NDVI主要由降水量和土壤水分驱动。【结论】华北地区是主要的粮食基地和重要的碳汇区域，未来应加大生态环境监测与保护力度。 |
| 关键词: 植被变化趋势；华北地区；XGBoost；季节变化；生态保护 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025132 |
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| Seasonal dynamics of vegetation and its driving factors in the North China Plain |
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YOU Yujun, XI Xiaokang, ZHANG Lu
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1. Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Center of Shaanxi Province, Xi’an 710068, China)
2. Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Understanding the seasonal dynamics of vegetation and the factors driving these changes is essential for sustainable land management and ecological protection. This study investigates the seasonal variations in vegetation cover across North China and identifies the dominant natural and anthropogenic factors influencing these patterns. 【Method】Multi-source data, including the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), nighttime light intensity, meteorological data, and soil and terrain attributes, were used to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of NDVI from 1982 to 2021. Trend analysis, the Hurst index, and interpretable machine learning methods were employed to detect long-term NDVI trends and quantify the influence of key environmental and human drivers. 【Result】The average NDVI in the study area increased significantly in all seasons from 1982 to 2021. Spatially, about 60% of the region exhibited NDVI values above 0.6 in summer, while winter and spring NDVI values remained relatively low. Areas showing significant NDVI increases were concentrated in winter and spring, accounting for 97.70% and 86.94% of the total area, respectively. In contrast, only 1.06% and 2.22% of the region experienced significant NDVI declines in spring and summer. Future projections suggest that NDVI in approximately 82% of the region may decline. NDVI in non-cropland areas generally increased, whereas croplands showed a continuous decline. The dominant drivers of NDVI variation differed by land-use type: NDVI in croplands was mainly influenced by elevation and potential evapotranspiration, while in non-cropland areas, it was primarily affected by precipitation and soil moisture. 【Conclusion】The NDVI in North China exhibited clear spatiotemporal heterogeneity driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Sustainable land management strategies should account for these differences, targeting croplands and non-croplands separately to enhance vegetation resilience and ecosystem stability. |
| Key words: vegetation dynamics; North China Plain; XGBoost; seasonal variation; ecological conservation |
