| 引用本文: | 任一诺,卢晓宁,任建成,等.山东省区域性暴雨时空分布特征及定量评估研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(8):121-127. |
| Ren Yinuo,Lu Xiaoning,Ren Jiancheng,et al.山东省区域性暴雨时空分布特征及定量评估研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(8):121-127. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究山东省区域性暴雨的时空演变规律。【方法】基于1978—2020年山东省109个均一化地面气象站逐日降水资料，采用EOF分解、North显著性判别、气候统计分析方法，结合综合强度指数与百分位数分级法，系统分析山东省区域性暴雨的空间分布模态、时间演变特征，并按鲁东、鲁中、鲁南、鲁西北、鲁北气象地理片区开展分区分析。【结果】经EOF分解识别出山东省年暴雨日数3个显著空间模态，累积方差贡献率达39.34%，分别呈全省一致型、东南-西北反向型、中部-两侧反向型分布，5个片区在各模态下表现出差异化的暴雨时空演变特征，鲁南、鲁中为暴雨高敏感片区，鲁西北、鲁北波动特征更为显著，整体受季风环流与地形的共同调控；1978—2020年共发生区域性暴雨386次，整体呈微弱减少趋势，年代际、年际波动显著，7—8月为高发时段，占总次数的65.8%；暴雨过程以短时为主，平均持续时间为1.5 d，1~2 d占比为94%，局地极端降水特征突出；基于持续时间、影响范围、降水强度构建的综合强度指数，将暴雨过程划分为4个等级，实现了定量化评估。【结论】本研究明确了环流与地形共同影响下山东省暴雨的主导空间模态及时序演变特征，构建了符合区域特点的多要素暴雨综合强度评估方法，揭示了区域暴雨时空异质性特征，可为山东省暴雨时空演化规律提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 山东省；区域性暴雨；EOF分解；时空分布特征；定量评估 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2026050 |
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| Spatiotemporal variation of regional rainstorms and their driving factors in Shandong Province |
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Ren Yinuo, Lu Xiaoning, Ren Jiancheng, He Min
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1. College of Resources and Environment, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;
2. Binzhou Meteorological Bureau, Binzhou 256612, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Rainstorms are prominent meteorological risks. Understanding their spatiotemporal variation and driving factors in a region is critical to developing mitigation strategies. This study analyses the spatiotemporal variation of regional rainstorms in Shandong Province and their determinants.【Method】The study was based on daily precipitation data measured from 109 meteorological stations from 1978 to 2020 across the province. The province was divided into five meteorological-geographical subregions. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition, North significance test and climatic statistical analysis, combined with the self-established comprehensive rainstorm intensity index and percentile classification method, were used to analyse the spatiotemporal variation of its key driving factors.【Result】①EOF decomposition identified three significant spatial patterns of annual rainstorm days in the province, with a cumulative variance contribution rate of 39.34%. These three patterns are: provincially consistent pattern, southeast-northwest reverse pattern, and central-sides reverse pattern. The five subregions showed distinct spatiotemporal variation in each pattern. The south and centre of the province were highly rainstorm-sensitive areas, while rainstorms in the northwest and north showed dramatic fluctuations, jointly controlled by monsoon circulation and regional topography. ②A total of 386 regional rainstorm events were recorded from 1978 to 2020 across the province, with an average of 8.9 events per year. The overall rainstorm frequency showed a slight decreasing trend from 1978 to 2020, though not at significant level, accompanied by noticeable interannual and interdecadal fluctuations. In total, 65.8% of rainstorm events occurred in July and August. ③Most regional rainstorms were short event, with an average duration of 1.5 days; 94% of rainstorm events lasted 1-2 days. On average, each rainstorm event affected 23 meteorological stations. ④Analysis using the comprehensive intensity index constructed from the rainstorm duration, their affected area, and rainfall intensity showed that regional rainstorm events can be divided into four grades.【Conclusion】Three dominant spatial patterns of rainstorms were identified in Shandong Province, which were affected by atmospheric circulation and topography. The findings unveil the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of regional rainstorms and can help develop strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of regional rainstorms in Shandong Province. |
| Key words: Shandong Province; regional rainstorm; EOF decomposition; spatiotemporal distribution characteristics; quantitative assessment |
