| 引用本文: | 吕良冬,齐文婷,王 航,等.巴州地区气象要素时空演变特征与干旱趋势分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(9):125-133. |
| Lyu Liangdong,Qi Wenting,Wang Hang,et al.巴州地区气象要素时空演变特征与干旱趋势分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(9):125-133. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示巴音郭楞蒙古自治州（巴州）气候要素演变规律及干旱风险，为区域生态安全与水资源配置提供科学支撑。【方法】基于1960—2020年巴州8个气象站长序列观测数据，综合运用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验及标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）等方法，系统分析气候要素时空演变特征与干旱趋势。【结果】①巴州气候呈显著“暖湿化”趋势，气温与降水量分别以0.2 ℃/10 a和5.4 mm/10 a的速率显著上升（p＜0.05），但日照时间以2.9 h/10 a速率递减，SPEI-12指数以0.13~0.36/10 a速率下降，蒸散加剧导致实际干旱程度持续增强；②气象要素空间分布失衡，气温“南高北低”、降水“北多南少”，站点间气候资源差异显著；③降水量（1981年）和气压（1966年）存在显著突变点，标志气候系统阶段性转型。【结论】巴州暖湿化并未缓解干旱，反而因蒸散加剧导致水分亏缺扩大；干旱化呈南强北弱的空间分异；气压（1966年）与降水量（1981年）突变是区域气候系统转型的标志。 |
| 关键词: 巴州；气象要素；时空演变；SPEI；干旱趋势；暖湿化 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2026083 |
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| Spatiotemporal variation in meteorological factors and drought dynamics in Bazhou |
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Lyu Liangdong, Qi Wenting, Wang Hang, Fan Jungang, Wang Jiandong
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1. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,
Beijing 100081, China; 2. Western Agricultural Research Center, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changji 831100, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Climate change can alter water availability and drought risk in arid regions, where even small changes in temperature and precipitation can substantially influence regional water balance and ecological security. This study characterize the spatiotemporal variations in key climatic factors and drought risk in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture (Bazhou), Inner Mongolia, to support regional ecological security and water- resource management. 【Method】Meteorological data measured from eight stations in the region from 1960 to 2020 were used to characterize climatic variability and drought trends. Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test were used to identify temporal trends and abrupt changes, while the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to assess drought dynamics.【Result】①From 1960 to 2020, the region exhibited a significant warming-wetting trend, with temperature and precipitation increasing at an average rate of 0.2 ℃/10 a and 5.4 mm/10 a, respectively (p＜0.05). In contrast, sunshine duration decreased at an average rate of 2.9 h/10 a, and the SPEI-12 index declined at an average rate of 0.13-0.36/10 a, indicating increasing drought severity despite increasing precipitation, likely due to enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand. ②Climatic factors showed strong spatial heterogeneity, with temperature increasing from north to south, whereas precipitation showed an opposite spatial pattern, resulting in substantial spatial variation in water availability. ③Significant abrupt changes in precipitation and atmospheric pressure were detected around 1981 and 1966, respectively, indicating important shifts in regional climate conditions. Together, these results reveal that the apparent warming-wetting trend from 1960 to 2020 masked an increasing drought risk associated with enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand.【Conclusion】Bazhou became warmer and wetter from 1960 to 2020, but drought risk increased because the increase in precipitation was insufficient to offset the increase in atmospheric evaporative demand. Drought severity was greater in the south than in the north, while abrupt changes in atmospheric pressure and precipitation marked important transitions in the regional climate. |
| Key words: Bazhou; meteorological elements; spatio-temporal evolution; SPEI; drought trend; warming-wetting trend |
