| 引用本文: | 提拉热·艾克拉木,任慧丽,刘 兵,等.节水条件下玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散发时空演变与双重归因[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(9):134-142. |
| Tilare·Aikelamu,Ren Huili,Liu Bing,et al.节水条件下玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散发时空演变与双重归因[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(9):134-142. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】揭示节水条件下玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散发的时空演变特征，并识别驱动潜在蒸散发时空变化的气候与人类活动因子。【方法】以玛纳斯河流域为研究区，基于1980—2023年潜在蒸散发数据，采用Theil-Sen Median（Sen）趋势和Mann-Kendall（M-K）检验等方法分析其时空变化特征，将地理探测器与随机森林回归融合，解析潜在蒸散发的时空演变机制。【结果】①玛纳斯河流域平均气温呈上升趋势，而平均风速和相对湿度呈显著下降趋势。②潜在蒸散发呈显著上升趋势，空间分异明显，表现为荒漠区增长速率最高，绿洲平原区增长速率次之，山区增长速率最低。③GeoDetector分析表明，气温、降水量与风速的解释力（q值）相对较高；随机森林模型的变量重要性结果显示，气温、日照时间与相对湿度的重要性更为突出。④人口与GDP等人类活动因子的直接解释度较低，但与气温等气候因子交互呈增强效应。【结论】1980—2023年玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散发总体呈显著上升趋势，空间上表现为北部高于南部、西部高于东部的空间格局。气温是潜在蒸散发变化的主导因子，人类活动因子直接作用较弱，但可通过与气候因子的交互对其产生增强影响。 |
| 关键词: 潜在蒸散发；驱动力；地理探测器；随机森林；人类活动 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2026003 |
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| Spatiotemporal change in potential evapotranspiration and its response to climatic and anthropogenic variation in the Manas River Basin |
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Tilare·Aikelamu, Ren Huili, Liu Bing, Wang Ting, Li Xinwei
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1. College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China; 2. Key Laboratory of
Cold and Arid Regions Eco-hydraulic Engineering of Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China;
3. Water Conservancy Project Management & Service Center of Shihezi City, the 8th Division, Shihezi 832000, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important indicator of atmospheric water demand, particularly in arid and water-limited regions. Understanding its spatiotemporal variability is essential for water resource management under, especially water conservation conditions. This study investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of PET in the Manas River Basin and identified the climatic and anthropogenic factors that drive its variation.【Method】Using meteorological and socioeconomic data measured from 1980 to 2023, the spatiotemporal variation of PET in the basin was analyzed using Theil-Sen median trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. GeoDetector and Random Forest regression were combined to quantify the contributions of climatic and anthropogenic factors and identify the key drivers underlying PET variation.【Result】①Mean air temperature increased significantly, whereas mean wind speed and relative humidity decreased significantly across the basin from 1980 to 2023. ②PET showed a significant upward trend with pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with the highest rate of increase in desert areas, followed by oasis-plain areas, and the lowest rate of increase in mountainous areas. ③GeoDetector analysis indicated that temperature, precipitation, and wind speed had relatively high explanatory power (q-values) for PET variation, whereas Random Forest analysis identified temperature, sunshine duration, and relative humidity as the most important predictors. ④Population and GDP had relatively weak direct explanatory power but enhanced the effects of climatic factors, particularly temperature, through significant interactions.【Conclusion】PET in the Manas River Basin increased significantly from 1980 to 2023 and exhibited a spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south and in the west than in the east. Temperature was the dominant driver of PET variation. Anthropogenic factors had a relatively weak direct effect but could amplify PET variation through interactions with climatic factors. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding changes in atmospheric water demand and supporting water resource management in the basin under water-conservation conditions. |
| Key words: potential evapotranspiration; driving factors; GeoDetector; random forest; human activities |
