| 引用本文: | 付 帅,冯英香,余 杰,等.基于PSR模型的鄱阳湖流域水资源-经济-生态
韧性时空差异及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(6):61-71. |
| FU Shuai,FENG Yingxiang,YU Jie,et al.基于PSR模型的鄱阳湖流域水资源-经济-生态
韧性时空差异及影响因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(6):61-71. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探明鄱阳湖流域水资源-经济-生态系统韧性的时空差异特征及其背后的影响机制。【方法】以鄱阳湖流域11个地市为例，基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型构建评价指标体系，运用熵权法计算指标权重，采用综合评价法分析11个地市压力-状态-响应韧性的时空分布特征，借助地理探测器对鄱阳湖流域水资源-经济-生态韧性的主要影响因子及因子交互作用进行探测。【结果】①2010—2020年鄱阳湖流域压力韧性、响应韧性和综合韧性评价指数基本呈逐年上升的态势，状态韧性逐年变化不显著，大部分地区处于较低韧性水平；②2010—2020年鄱阳湖流域各地市压力-状态-响应韧性空间上呈高低交错分布的格局，从3个维度来看，区域压力韧性和综合韧性空间差异不大，各地级市压力韧性普遍较高；状态韧性和响应韧性由中部向南北升高，分布较分散，整体韧性水平有待提升；③经济因素对水资源-经济-生态系统韧性的影响作用有所增强，人均GDP、产业结构和生态本底交互作用对系统韧性的影响显著。【结论】综上所述，加强流域整体规划、流域水资源管理与污染防治，转变农业生产方式，能有效提高流域水资源-经济-生态韧性，实现流域水资源利用、经济发展和生态保护的协调可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 韧性；PSR模型；综合评价法；地理探测器；鄱阳湖流域 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2024361 |
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| Spatiotemporal analysis of economic and ecological water resource resilience and its drivers in the Poyang Lake Basin based on the PSR model |
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FU Shuai, FENG Yingxiang, YU Jie, XU Bingxian, LI Lanhai, LI Xiuxiang, PENG Yuxin
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1. Department of Land Resource Management, School of Finance and Public Administration, Jiangxi University of
Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China; 2. Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Use in Arid Region,
Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
3. School of Applied Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Environmental changes and human activities have significantly affected the ecological functions of the Poyang Lake Basin. Herein, we analyze the spatiotemporal variation in the resilience of water resources, economy and ecosystems in the basin, as well as the factors influencing them.【Method】The analysis covers 11 metropolitan regions within the basin. An evaluation index system based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework was developed, and the index weights were determined using the entropy weight method. Spatiotemporal variations in resilience across the pressure, state, and response dimensions were examined using a comprehensive evaluation approach. The geographic detector method was employed to identify the primary factors and their interactions that influence the economic and ecological resilience of water resources.【Result】① From 2010 to 2020, the pressure resilience, response resilience, and overall resilience indices had steadily increased, whereas the state resilience showed minimal change. Most areas in the basin continued to experience low resilience levels. ② During this period, resilience levels among the 11 regions displayed an alternating high-low pattern. Spatially, pressure and overall resilience showed limited regional variation and remained generally high, while state and response resilience increased from the center toward the northern and southern parts of the basin. The overall resilience level across the basin requires improvement. ③ Economic factors were found to be the dominant drivers of resilience in the water-economy-ecosystem system. Interactions between per capita GDP, industrial structure, and ecological background were found to have significant impact on system resilience.【Conclusion】Strengthening overall basin planning, improving water resources management and pollution control, and transforming agricultural practices can enhance economic and ecological resilience of water resources in the basin. These measures are crucial for sustainable use of water resource, economic development and ecological protection in the basin. |
| Key words: resilience; PSR model; comprehensive evaluation method; geographic detector; Poyang Lake Basin |
