| 引用本文: | 付 帅,余 杰,冯英香,等.基于PLUS-InVEST模型的环鄱阳湖区生境质量
时空演变与多情景模拟研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(11):106-115. |
| FU Shuai,YU Jie,FENG Yingxiang,et al.基于PLUS-InVEST模型的环鄱阳湖区生境质量
时空演变与多情景模拟研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(11):106-115. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究环鄱阳湖区土地利用变化对生境质量的影响机制并优化区域生态安全格局，评价预测土地利用变化对生境质量的影响及发生机制，为区域生态经济可持续发展提供建议。【方法】本文耦合PLUS模型与InVEST模型，构建“驱动-变化-影响”分析框架，基于2000—2020年土地利用与社会经济数据，利用PLUS模型进行土地利用多情景（自然发展、生态保护、城镇建设）模拟，并使用InVEST模型进行生境质量定量评估研究。【结果】①2000—2020年，环鄱阳湖区耕地、林地和草地面积减少，而水域、建设用地面积增加，建设用地扩张导致耕地大量减少。②生境质量整体呈下降趋势，低生境质量区域面积增加，生态保护情景下生境质量得到改善，而自然发展和城镇建设情景下生境质量继续下降。③流域土地利用变化与生境质量下降紧密相关，生态保护情景有利于可持续发展战略。【结论】环鄱阳湖区需优先考虑未来采用生态保护情景以协调生境质量下降的矛盾。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用变化；生境质量；PLUS模型；InVEST模型；环鄱阳湖区 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025095 |
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| Simulating the spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat quality in the Poyang Lake Basin |
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FU Shuai, YU Jie, FENG Yingxiang, LIU Linyang, YANG Zhili, XU Bingxian
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1. School of Public Administration, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China;
2. Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Use in Arid Region, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; 3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Habitat quality is a key indicator of ecological stability and biodiversity conservation. In recent decades, rapid urbanization and land use transformation in the Poyang Lake Basin, the largest freshwater lake basin in China, have exerted increasing ecological pressure. This study analyses the spatiotemporal impacts of land use change on habitat quality, aiming to provide guidance for sustainable economic and ecological development in the region.【Method】A coupled PLUS–InVEST modelling framework was established to construct a “driver–change–impact” analytical system. Using land use and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2020, the PLUS model simulated land use evolution under three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection, and urban development. The InVEST model was then applied to quantitatively assess the impacts of these land use changes on habitat quality.【Result】① From 2000 to 2020, cultivated land, forest and grassland areas in the basin decreased, while water bodies and construction land expanded significantly, with urban expansion identified as the main driver of the cultivated land loss. ② Over the same period, overall habitat quality declined, accompanied by a growing proportion of low-quality habitat areas. Habitat quality improved under the ecological protection scenario but deteriorated under both natural and urban development scenarios. ③ Changes in land use were strongly correlated with habitat degradation, demonstrating the sensitivity of ecosystem in the region to anthropogenic disturbance.【Conclusion】Ecological protection should be prioritised to mitigate habitat degradation and achieve a balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability in the Poyang Lake Basin. Our findings provide a scientific basis for high-quality, sustainable development and for strengthening the ecological security pattern of the basin. |
| Key words: land use change; habitat quality; PLUS; InVEST; Poyang Lake Area |
