| 引用本文: | 窦金阳,顾宗芳,杨路华,等.基于AquaCrop模型的夏玉米作物参数
敏感性分析及模型适用性评价[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(12):20-27. |
| DOU Jinyang,GU Zongfang,YANG Luhua,et al.基于AquaCrop模型的夏玉米作物参数
敏感性分析及模型适用性评价[J].灌溉排水学报,2025,44(12):20-27. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探讨AquaCrop模型输出结果对参数变化的响应，评估模型的稳定性和适用性；评估不同灌溉策略对产量和水分利用效率的影响，优化灌溉管理。【方法】基于田间实测数据，采用EFAST全局敏感性分析对AquaCrop模型中40个夏玉米参数进行敏感性筛选，根据筛选结果对模型进行校准和验证，并预测不同水文年的限水灌溉制度。【结果】作物产量与生物量对基础作物系数、水分生产率、基础温度、衰老开始日历日、成熟日历日和初始收获指数6个参数较为敏感，其中衰老开始日历日和成熟日历日总敏感指数最高（0.63~0.64），作物衰老期与成熟期对产量形成具有关键的调控作用。通过2023—2024年试验数据验证，产量相对误差≤9%，证实模型具有较高精度。【结论】作物产量与生物量对基础作物系数、水分生产率、基础温度、衰老开始日历日、成熟日历日和初始收获指数6个参数敏感；参数优化提高了模型模拟精度，效果较好；基于水文年情景模拟提出的优化灌溉方案为：平水年仅在出苗—拔节期灌水75 mm，灌溉定额为75 mm；偏旱年需在出苗—拔节期、抽穗—灌浆期各灌水75 mm，灌溉定额为150 mm。 |
| 关键词: AquaCrop模型；参数敏感性；EFAST方法；灌水量优化 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025190 |
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| Sensitivity analysis of crop parameters and applicability evaluation of the AquaCrop model for summer maize |
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DOU Jinyang, GU Zongfang, YANG Luhua, LI Li
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1. College of Water Conservancy Engineering, Tianjin Agricultural University, Tianjin 300392, China;
2. Baoding Irrigation Experiment Station, Baoding 072450, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Crop models have been widely applied to assess the impacts of agricultural management practices and climate change on crop growth and yield, but their performance relies heavily on multiple input parameters. The sensitivity of model outputs to a small variation in these parameters is a critical factor for reliable model applications, while remaining insufficiently understood. This study aims to address this gap by taking summer maize grown under different water-limited irrigations as an example. 【Method】The study used the AquaCrop model, which involves 40 parameters to characterize summer maize growth and development. The extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test method was used to quantify the sensitivity of each parameter to model outputs. The model was calibrated and validated against field experimental data, and the optimized model was then applied to simulate the effects of different irrigation strategies on growth and yield of summer maize in different hydrological years.【Result】Both crop yield and aboveground biomass were sensitive to six key crop parameters: base crop coefficient, water productivity, base temperature, senescence initiation calendar day, maturity calendar day, and initial harvest index. Among these parameters, the senescence initiation calendar day and maturity calendar day are the most sensitive parameters that influence crop yield, with their total sensitivity indices ranging from 0.63 to 0.64. Model validation against data measured in 2023 and 2024 demonstrated that the model was accurate in predicting crop yield, with its relative errors less than 9%. 【Conclusions】The seed yield and biomass simulated by AquaCrop for summer maize are primarily sensitive to six crop parameters. Optimization of these parameters is essential for improving model accuracy. Simulation results under different hydrological years identified three optimal irrigation schemes. In normal years, a single irrigation of 75 mm during the seedling emergence-jointing stage is sufficient to maintain target yields; in dry years, two irrigations, each 75 mm, applied during the seedling-jointing and tasseling-grain filling stages are required to sustain the yield. These findings provide guidance for precise irrigation for summer maize production in the study area. |
| Key words: AquaCrop model; parameter sensitivity; EFAST method; optimization of irrigation volume |
