| 摘要: |
| 【目的】耕地与粮食安全息息相关，探究耕地时空演变规律，对保障粮食安全至关重要。【方法】以天山北坡城市群为研究区，运用土地转移矩阵、重心迁移模型等模型方法探究天山北坡城市群耕地时空演变，并基于PLUS模型分析未来不同情景耕地演变动态趋势。【结果】①天山北坡城市群耕地面积持续增加，1980—2020年耕地面积增幅为7 930.80 km2，草地和未利用地是新增耕地的主要来源。同时，天山北坡各地区耕地变化存在差异，其中天山区、克拉玛依区、奎屯市等地区耕地变化剧烈。②1980—2020年，耕地重心与标准差椭圆偏移方向一致，总体向西北部偏移，耕地空间分布趋于聚集，连片程度日益改善。③情景预测表明，自然发展情景下，天山北坡城市群2030年耕地面积预计将增加1 758.42 km2，而生态保护和城镇发展情景耕地面积较自然发展情景减少143.56、1 359.45 km2。【结论】1980—2020年天山北坡城市群耕地面积明显增加。未来天山北坡应统筹生态保护和城镇发展措施，合理规划和利用地区耕地资源，保障粮食安全和实现区域可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 耕地；PLUS模型；时空演变；破碎化；天山北坡城市群 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025260 |
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| Spatiotemporal changes of cultivated land in urban areas on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and their prediction |
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WEI Xi, YANG Dazhi, ZHU Kangwen
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1. School of Land Sciences & Technology, China University of Geosciences(Beijing), Beijing 100083, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese
Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 4. School of Smart City, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Rapid urbanization in Northwestern China over the past decades has substantially reshaped the landscape of cultivated land both spatially and temporally. Taking the urban areas on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains as an example, this paper analyzes these changes from 1980 to 2020. 【Method】The analysis was based on the land transfer matrix, the gravity center migration model and other methods. The dynamic trend of the cultivated land changes under different future scenarios was predicted using the PLUS model.【Result】①From 1980 to 2020, the cultivated land area in the region increased by 7 930.80 km2. Grassland and unused land were the primary sources of the increased cultivated land. However, the rate of cultivated land change varied spatially, with Tianshan District, Karamay District, and Kuitun City experiencing more significant changes than other regions. ②From 1980 to 2020, cultivated land in the region shifted northwestward and became less fragmented and more connected. ③Under the natural development scenario, it was predicted that the cultivated land area would increase by 1 758.42 km2 in 2030, while under the ecological protection and urban development scenarios, the cultivated land area was predicted to decrease by 143.56 km2 and 1 359.45 km2, respectively, in 2030, compared to the prediction under the natural development scenario.【Conclusion】Cultivated land in urban areas on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains has experienced substantial expansion from 1980 to 2020. To ensure food security and sustainable regional development, future planning should integrate ecological protection and urban development to optimize the use of cultivated land resources. |
| Key words: cultivated land; PLUS model; space-time evolution; fragmentation; urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains |
