| 引用本文: | 乔 源,余建奎,杨 泊,等.2000—2024年人民胜利渠灌区冬小麦物候变化与气候变化响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(2):111-119. |
| QIAO Yuan,YU Jiankui,YANG Bo,et al.2000—2024年人民胜利渠灌区冬小麦物候变化与气候变化响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(2):111-119. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】探究人民胜利渠灌区冬小麦物候期的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应，揭示中国豫北地区冬小麦不同物候期与气温、降水量之间的相关性。【方法】运用Landsat系列卫星影像数据，采用决策树和阈值分类法提取2000—2024年人民胜利渠灌区冬小麦种植面积及其4个主要物候期，包括返青期、拔节期、抽穗期和成熟期，从空间和时间上对灌区冬小麦的物候期进行分析，并探究冬小麦物候对气候（气温和降水量）变化的敏感性。【结果】人民胜利渠灌区冬小麦返青期、拔节期、抽穗期、成熟期分别集中在1 a中的第59~68、95~104、116~124、147~157天。灌区冬小麦物候期的波动性由大至小依次为拔节期、返青期、抽穗期和成熟期。灌区冬小麦各物候期与最低气温呈负相关但敏感性较差，与降水量呈不显著负相关关系，其中返青期和拔节期与平均气温和最高气温呈正相关。【结论】人民胜利渠灌区在2000—2024年期间，冬小麦物候整体表现为南部早于北部、西部早于东部的空间格局，灌区西南地区的平均/最高温度的增长幅度均小于东北地区是冬小麦物候期呈西南-东北逐渐推迟的主要因素。 |
| 关键词: 冬小麦；物候期；气候变化；时空特征；人民胜利渠灌区 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025092 |
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| The impact of climate change on phenological shifts of winter wheat in the People’s Victory Canal Irrigation District |
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QIAO Yuan, YU Jiankui, YANG Bo, QIN Jingtao
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1. Shaanxi Agriculture and Forestry Technical University, Yangling 712100, China; 2. Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Water saving Irrigation Engineering,
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Xinxiang 453002, China;
3. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background and Objective】Crop phenology is sensitive to climate change and its shift can directly affect crop growth, yield formation and food security. Understanding these shifts is particularly important in intensively cultivated irrigation districts. This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variation of winter wheat phenological stages in the People’s Victory Canal Irrigation Area and their responses to climate change in northern Henan Province.【Method】Landsat satellite imagery from 2000 to 2024 was used to extract the planting area of winter wheat and its four key phenological stages: green-up, jointing, heading, and maturity, by integrating decision-tree and threshold classification methods. Using these data, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of the winter wheat phenology and their sensitivity to changes in temperature and precipitation at different growth stages.【Result】The green-up, jointing, heading, and maturity stages of winter wheat in the study area occurred during day-of-year ranges of 59-68, 95-104, 116-124, and 147-157, respectively, in each year. Over the 24 years, the stages at which crop phenology showed the greatest and least fluctuation followed the order of jointing, green-up, heading, and maturity. Although insignificantly sensitive to minimum temperatures, all phenological stages showed negative correlations with this variable. In addition, all phenological stages were significantly correlated with precipitation. Among these phenological stages, the green-up and jointing stages were positively correlated with mean and maximum temperatures.【Conclusion】From 2000 to 2024, winter wheat phenology in the People’s Victory Canal Irrigation District varied spatially, with phenology occurring earlier in the south and west than in the north and east, respectively. The smaller increases in mean and maximum temperatures in the southwest compared with those in the northeast were the primary factors contributing to the observed phenological differences. |
| Key words: winter wheat; phenological stages; climate change; spatio-temporal characteristics; People’s Victory Canal Irrigation |
