| 引用本文: | 董军林,邱小琮,尹 娟,等.1990—2020年黄河流域水库面积变化及驱动因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(10):107-114. |
| Dong Junlin,Qiu Xiaocong,Yin Juan,et al.1990—2020年黄河流域水库面积变化及驱动因素分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2026,45(10):107-114. |
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】分析1990—2020年黄河流域水库面积的动态变化特征，评估气象因子与人类活动对水库面积的影响及驱动机制，揭示流域水库面积的时空演变规律。【方法】基于Google Earth Engine云平台与Landsat/Sentinel多源遥感影像，提取1990—2020年全流域66座典型水库面积，结合Pearson相关分析与时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）解析气象因子与人类活动的时空异质性影响。【结果】1990—2020年，黄河流域水库总面积呈显著上升趋势，年平均增长速率为9.43 km2/a，并在2012年达到最高（1 205.63 km2），较1990年增长36.61%。不同高程带水库面积变化差异明显，数字高程（DEM）＞3 000 m海拔带的年平均增长率为4.21 km2/a，远高于其他海拔带。GTWR模型结果显示，驱动因子具有显著的空间异质性，年平均气温与降水量为主导指标，但在高海拔地区，受融雪补给滞后性的影响，降水量与水库面积呈负相关。【结论】人类活动在低海拔区域表现出明显的正向驱动特征，人口密集区水库受经济调控影响显著，蓄水变化更多遵循防洪与供水需求发展。本研究通过长时间序列监测与精度分析，揭示了自然-社会属性对水库系统的复杂影响，为黄河流域水资源优化配置与生态安全保障提供了科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 水库面积 气候变化 人类活动 时空地理加权回归模型 驱动因素 |
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2026077 |
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| Spatiotemporal dynamics of reservoir area in the Yellow River Basin and the underlying drivers |
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Dong Junlin, Qiu Xiaocong, Yin Juan, Wang Chuyou
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1. School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China; 2. School of Life Sciences,
Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China; 3. Shanxi Provincial Geological Survey Institute Co., Ltd., Taiyuan 030006, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Reservoirs are critical components of water-resource regulation; understanding their long-term dynamics and the underlying mechanisms is essential for sustainable water management and ecological security. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of reservoir areas and the underlying natural and anthropogenic drivers in the Yellow River Basin.【Method】Spatiotemporal variations in water surface areas of 66 reservoirs across the basin were extracted from multi-source Landsat and Sentinel imagery acquired from 1990 to 2020 using the Google Earth Engine platform. Pearson correlation analysis and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) were employed to quantify the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on reservoir area.【Result】In the past three decades, the total reservoir area in the basin increased at an average rate of 9.43 km2/year. The total reservoir area reached a maximum of 1 205.63 km2 in 2012, representing a 36.61% increase relative to 1990. Change in reservoir area varied across elevation gradients, with reservoirs at elevations above 3 000 m exhibiting the highest average annual increase, at a rate of 4.21 km2/year. The GTWR model revealed that mean annual temperature and precipitation, which varied spatially, were the dominant factors influencing reservoir areas. In high-elevation areas, precipitation was negatively correlated with reservoir areas, likely due to the lagged contribution of snowmelt to reservoir inflow. In low-elevation regions, human activities had a positive influence on reservoir areas.【Conclusion】These findings indicate that reservoirs in densely populated areas are strongly influenced by anthropogenic and socioeconomic factors, with reservoir dynamics primarily reflecting flood-control and water-supply demands. By integrating long-term remote sensing monitoring with spatiotemporal modeling, this study revealed the complex interactions between natural and socioeconomic factors in their influence on reservoir dynamics and provided scientific support for optimizing water-resource allocation and ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin. |
| Key words: reservoir area climate change human activities geographically and temporally weighted regression model driving factors |
