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| DOI： |
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| Measurement and Analysis of Driving Effects of Water Utilization Change in Anhui Province Based on Complete Decomposition Model |
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ZHANG Leqin, FANG Yuyuan
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Resource Environment College, Chizhou College, Chizhou 247000, China
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| Abstract: |
| In order to explore the driving mechanism for water utilization in Anhui, a complete decomposition model was used to measure the driving mechanism for water utilization changes on the levels of population growth, economic development, technical progress and structural change. The results indicated that, firstly, economic development imposed a positive driving function on water utilization change, which was also a primary factor accounting for the increase of water utilization. During the period from 2001 to 2014, 47.226 billion cubicmeters of water was used due to the economic growth, with the increment effect up to 819.75%. Secondly, population growth, technical progress and industrial structure change had inhibitory effects on water utilization, in which the technical progress played a most remarkable role. From 2001 to 2014, 33.387 billion cubic meter of water util ization was reduced owing to technical progress, with the decrement effect up to 579.53%. The role of change in industrial structure was less significant, and totally 33.387 billion cubic meter of water was saved, with the decrement effect of 136.09%. Population growth imposed little effect on the change of water utilization, with the decrement effect of only 4.13%. Finally, under the combined action of population change, economic growth, technical progress and structural change, the annual average increase of water utilization was 443 million cubic meters. According to the inertial development mode, water utilization will be increased to 29.867 billion cubic meters by 2020, which will far exceed the red-line goal of 27.84 billion cubic meters of water utilization set by the provincial government. Based on the above-described research results, a series of policy suggestions was proposed such as vigorously developing the water-saving modern agriculture, actively modifying the water-saving techniques in traditional industry, strengthening the popularization of water-saving implements in tertiary industry and enhancing the ratio of the tertiary industry in which modern service industry plays a dominant role. |
| Key words: water utilization change; driving effect; complete decomposition model; Anhui Province |
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