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| DOI： |
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| Predicting Precipitation in Tongchuan Using Weighting Markov Chain Model |
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LI Yabin， XU Panpan， QIAN hui， WANG Haike
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School of Environment Science and Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China； Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
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| Abstract: |
| This paper analyzed the statistics of temporal variation of precipitation in Tongchuan of Shanxi Province using rainfall data measured from 1960—2013 and the sample-mean method and the square-moment method. We first demonstrated that the temporal series of the precipitation is statistically Markovian, and then developed a weighting Markov Chain model to predict the precipitation and tested it against available data in this region. The model was further combined with the fuzzy theory to predict rainfall. The results showed that the model is accurate and reduces error when using 1-5 backward precipitations. The model predicted that both 2014 and 2015 were weakly drought with an annual rainfall of 585.82 mm and 649.21 mm respectively, and that the possibility of occurrence of normaland weak drought yearswere high, while the occurrence of drought year was statistically low. |
| Key words: weighted Markov chain; Tongchuan area; prediction of precipitation; fuzzy set theory; ergodic and stationary distribution |
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