| This article has been：Browse 2112Times Download 2150Times |
|
|
|
| DOI： |
|
| Frequency Analysis of the Annual Runoff Series of Manas River Based on Conditional Probability Distribution |
|
DING Wenxue, CHEN Fulong, WU Zebin, ZHENG Jintao
|
|
Shihezi Hydrology Bureau, Shihezi 832000, China; College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; General Office of Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China
|
| Abstract: |
| This paper analyzed the change in the runoff of Manas River basin based on the data measured from 1956 to 2006 using the Mann-Kendall mutation test and the cumulative anomaly method. The model-fitting was tested using the conditional probability distribution method, K-S test, OLS and AIC. The results showed that the annual runoff in Manas River decreased from 1956 to 1995, and then increased from 1996 to 2006; the mutated year was in 1995. The designed optimal annual runoff under different frequencies increased by 1%～10%, compared with that calculated using the traditional frequency method. The result calculated from the conditional probability distribution is superior to that from the traditional method in flooding control and flood-resource utilization in the Manas River. |
| Key words: conditional probability distribution; annual runoff series; non-stationary; Mann-Kendall test; Manas River |
|
|
