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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0247 |
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| Measurement and GM (1,1) Prediction of Grey Water Footprint in Gansu Province under “The Belt and Road” Initiative |
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CAI Jianhui, YAN Qisheng
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School Earth Science and Mapping Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China；.College of Science, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Study the situation of water resource utilization in Gansu province “The Belt and Road” initiative. 【Method】 The grey water footprint model was used to analyze the residual grey water footprint, grey water footprint efficiency and water environment load index of Gansu Province in 2003—2015 years, and 2016—2020 years, the grey water footprint of the life, industrial and agricultural sectors in Gansu during 2016-2020 were quantitatively predicted by the GM (1,1) model. 【Result】 The results showed that，①The grey water footprint of Gansu province was 11.52×109 m3 in 2015, and the contribution of three departments to grey water footprint was: Life > Agriculture > Industry; ②During the past 13 years, although the grey water footprint showed an upward trend from the total, it had declined in some years. The industrial grey water increased significantly, and it was about 105.91%;③The residual grey water footprint showed a upward tendency, the largest increase was during 2013—2015 and the value was 67.11%, it’s showed that the pressure of water resources was increasing year by year, the water pollution was increasing, and the water quality will deteriorate in Gansu province; ④The grey water footprint efficiency increased by about 2.3 times, it’s shown that more GDP can be created on the unit grey water footprint; the average efficiency of grey water footprint was 38.62 yuan/m3, comparing with average grey water footprint efficiency of China which was 42.21, it’s still at a low level; ⑤The water environmental load index showed a rising trend, and increased 1.2 times of that in 2003, since 2013, the index rose rapidly approached 0.8, it was showed that the pressure of water environment was increased, and the pollutants were increased continuously in Gansu province. 【Conclusion】 GM (1,1) prediction results showed that the grey water of life, industrial decreased during 2016—2020, it will be reduced to 6.976 9×109 m3 and 3.569 9×109 m3 respectively by 2020 ; the agricultural grey water continued to grow, it will reach 7.620 6×109 m3 by 2020, it will pose a greater threat to water resources. |
| Key words: grey water footprint; water pollution degree; grey water footprint efficiency; water environmental load index; GM (1,1) prediction |
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