| This article has been：Browse 2083Times Download 3324Times |
scan it! |
|
|
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2019103 |
|
| Influence of Future Land Use Change on Runoff in the Upper Reaches of Kaidu River Based on SWAT Model |
|
LUO Yingxue, XU Changchun, YANG Qiuping, YANG Yuanyuan, ZHANG Jinxia
|
|
Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Revealing the change of watershed runoff under the change of land use has important practical significance for the planning and rational utilization of water resources in the basin.【Method】Taking the upper reaches of the Kaidu River as the research object, this paper used the distributed hydrological model SWAT as a tool, and used the CA-Markov model prediction method, the local land use planning requirements and the extreme land use scenario method to set up 2025 land use scenarios. These include natural development scenarios, planned development scenarios, extreme grassland scenarios and extreme forestland scenarios. 【Result】 ①The SWAT model constructed was statistically acceptable calibration period(R2=0.74 NSE=0.73) and validation period (R2=0.58, NSE=0.57). ②The Kappa coefficient of the 2010 land use type map simulated by the CA-Markov model was 0.83, which was highly accurate and can be used to predict the land use type in 2025. The change of land use type from 1980 to 2010 was mainly reflected in the conversion of grassland area into water body and unused land. The conversion area was 208.44 km2 and 13.69 km2 respectively. ③Compared with the base year (2010), the annual average runoff under each land use scenario is reduced, the natural development scenario was the fastest, and the extreme grassland scenario was the slowest; From the perspective of the wet season and the dry season, the monthly average runoff changes in each of the two periods are completely opposite. In terms of seasonal distribution, the land use types have the greatest impact on runoff changes in summer and less in winter. 【Conclusion】 Grassland in this area was the most important regulation factor for runoff. The reduction of original grassland will cause a large decrease in summer runoff. For unused land, it can be considered as grassland. |
| Key words: land use; SWAT model; CA-Markov model; runoff simulation; Kaidu river |
|
|
