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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2019102 |
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| Impact of Variation in Solar Radiation and Temperature on Potential Yield of Spring Maize in Shiyang River Basin in 1987—2016 |
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ZHAO Danyue, YANG Zhipeng, XU Can, ZHANG Ziqi, LIU Geng, ZHOU Shiwei, HU Xiaotao
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College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】In order to improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on spring maize production in northwest China, this study analyzed the trend of daily solar radiation, daily minimum air temperature, daily maximum air temperature and daily average air temperature during the growth season of spring maize (May-September) in Shiyang River Basin from 1987 to 2016.【Method】The meteorological data during maize growth season in each year were divided into three time series: Daily average air temperature (Ti), daily average solar radiation (Si) and daily average meteorological factor (Xi). Inter-annual combinations of [Ti, (X, S)i] and [Si, (X, T)i] generated 1 800 climate scenarios, and the potential crop yield in each scenario was simulated with the RZWQM2 model.【Result】①The daily maximum air temperature (TH), daily minimum air temperature (TL) and daily average air temperature (TM) all trended upwardly, rising at annual rate of 0.04 ℃, 0.14 ℃ and 0.09 ℃ respectively. ②The daily solar radiation fluctuated between 14.6 and 17.4 MJ/(m2·d). ③In 30 years period, the potential yield of spring maize in this region fluctuated between 7 261 and 11 248 kg/hm2, increasing initially followed by decline after peaking in 2002.【Conclusion】Temperature is the most important factor affecting maize yield and the continuous rise in temperature had led to a decrease in potential yield. Among all meteorological factors, the daily maximum air temperature affected the potential yield most. |
| Key words: RZWQM2; spring maize; solar radiation; air temperature; potential yield |
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