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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2021057 |
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| Using Accumulative Humidity Index to Estimate Drought and Flooding Hazards in Cotton Growth Season in Hubei Province |
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ZHANG Yue, DENG Kenan, GAO Yawen, QIAN Long, CHEN Cheng, HUANG Taoxing
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(1. School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
2. School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
3. Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, China;
4. Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Power China, Hangzhou 311122, China)
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Drought and flooding are two natural hazards affecting agricultural production, and understanding the statistics in their occurrences is critical to safeguarding crop growth. Taking cotton in Hubei province as an example, this paper presents a new method to analyze the drought and flooding characteristics during its growth season. 【Method】Ten-day accumulative humidity index was first calculated based on daily meteorological data measured from 1961 to 2019 from 26 meteorological stations across Hubei province; we then analyzed the variation in drought and flooding events occurring at seedling, budding, flowering and boll-forming stages of the cotton during this period. These data were used to analyze the relationship between drought-flooding intensity and the associated climatic cotton yield.【Result】The intensity of flooding occurring at all but the budding stage had been in decline from 1961 to 2019, and the intensity of drought occurring at all but boll-opening stage had also been in decrease during this period. There were three sharp changes in flooding intensity at significant level (p<0.05): Two sharp increases at the seedling and boll-opening stage in 1965, and one sharp decrease at boll-opening stage in 1985. In contrast, there was only one sharp change in drought intensity, happening at the boll-opening stage in 1975. Flooding was identified as the dominant hazard for cotton production in Hubei province, with its frequency and severity both being more than that of drought. Among all four growing stages, the seedling and budding stages were more prone to flooding, with their associated flooding frequency being 58.42% and 48.98% respectively. In contrast, the cotton at flowering and boll-forming stage and the boll-opening stage was susceptible to drought, with the average drought frequency being 10.59% and 11.00% respectively. Spatially, the southwest of the province was more susceptible to flooding, while the northern and central parts of the province were more prone to drought. Regression analysis revealed that flooding was more likely to hit during the flowering and boll-forming stages, where the flood indices were significantly associated with climate cotton yield (p<0.01) and the detrimental impact of flooding on climatic cotton yield was much greater than that of drought. In particular, flooding was more likely to occur at the budding stage, which could reduce cotton yield in Jingmen, Xiaogan and Huangshi. In contrast, drought was more likely to hit at the boll-opening stage and reduced cotton yield in Huanggang. 【Conclusion】Overall, cotton in Hubei province is prone to flooding and improving drainage system is hence important to ensure its production, especially during budding-flowering and boll-forming stage. Drought also occurs in some regions and agronomic management of cotton growth should consider variation of both flooding and drought across the province. |
| Key words: accumulative humidity index; cotton; drought; waterlogging; climatic yield; Hubei province |
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