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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2020507 |
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| The Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activities on the Runoff of Xilamulun River |
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HAN Conghui, XI Xiaokang*, ZHU Yonghua
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(1.Chifeng Hydrology Survey Bureau, Chifeng 024000, China;
2. Shaanxi Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Center, Xi’an 710068, China;
3.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Yan’an University, Yan’an 716000, China)
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background and objective】The average global temperature has risen by 0.74 ℃ over the last century, which has alerted the global hydrological cycle with extreme weather events occurring more frequently. This, together with anthropogenic activities, has affected the runoffs of most catchments and led to soil degradation and deterioration. Understanding the change in runoff of a river in response to climate change and anthropogenic activity is hence critical to mitigating their detrimental impacts. Taking Xilamulun River basin as an example, this paper is to identify the environmental factors underlying its runoff change.【Method】The analysis was based on meteorological and hydrological data measured from 1958 to 2015 across the basin. The factors that affected the runoff changes in the basin were calculated using Pearson correlation analysis, stepwise multiple regression, double cumulative curve, cumulative anomaly and SCRCQ method.【Result】Both runoff and precipitation in the basin had been in decline at decadal rates of 4 mm/10 a and 8.24 mm/10 a respectively, while the annual average temperature has been rising at an average decadal rate of 0.32 ℃/10 a. Annual average temperature, average summer temperature, average autumn temperature and annual runoff were all closely correlated. The annual runoff was affected by rainfall in summer the most, followed by the average temperature in summer. There was a correlation between precipitation and runoff after 1971, and the significance of the correlation endured reflection changes in 1972, 1982, and 1998, respectively. The contribution of the precipitation to runoff has been in decline and was 0.26%, 17.51% and 26.13%, respectively, in 1972—1981, 1982—1997, and 1998—2015, while during the same periods the associated contribution of human activities to the runoff changes was 99.74%, 82.49% and 73.88% respectively. 【Conclusion】Anthropogenic activities affected the runoff change in Xilamulun river the most from 1985 to 2015, but its influence has been waning compared to that of climate change. |
| Key words: Xilamulun river basin; climate change; human activities; runoff |
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